Friday, May 9, 2008

Final Big Ten 2008 Ratings

Big Ten 2008 conference-only efficiency and possession-based efficiency stats

The full report is here and the 2007 season Big Ten ratings and explanations are here, but essentially this is my way of home-cooking the box scores to understand how valuable each player is to their team by measuring their effectiveness in scoring (points, FG%, FT%), passing (assists), holding onto the ball (def. rebounds, turnovers), and getting stops (steals, blocked shots) & extra possessions (offensive rebounds). I measure it in two categories: per-game production and per-possession production. If you look the per-possession or hpps rating at this way, this last season Wisconsin reserve Greg Stiemsma was about 54% likely on any given possession to help his team out in terms of getting a possession or a score, which was tops in the conference. However, Iowa starter Jake Kelly was at the opposite end of the spectrum, at about 17%. However, since Kelly played a lot more possessions than Stiemsma, their per-game productivity wasn't vastly dissimilar (6.9 for Kelly vs. 8.3 for Stiemsma). It's certainly not infallible as players at different position do so many different things, that's it hard to put them all on one metric. But I think this is helpful tool, as long as it is combined with some common sense.

2008 Per-Game (hppg) mean: 9.3
2008 Per-Possession (hpps) mean: .2826

2008 Per-Game (hppg) median: 8.2
2008 Per-Possession (hpps) median: .2831

Top Ten Performers per game:
1. DJ White, Indiana (28.4)
2. Rob Hummel, Purdue (24.2)
3. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (23.7)
4. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue (19.9)
5. Jamarcus Ellis, Indiana (19.8)
6. Goran Suton, Michigan State (19.8)
7. Demetri McCamey, Illinois (19.1)
8. Ekpe Udoh, Michigan (18.9)
9. Eric Gordon, Indiana (18.8)
10. Michael Flowers, Wisconsin (18.2)

*Special mention to Geary Claxton, Penn State who had been averaging 26.6 in the three games before going down with a career-ending injury in the fourth conference game.

Top Ten Performers Per Possession (min. 10 poss/per game):

1. Greg Stiemsma, Wisconsin (.5388)
2. Rob Hummel, Purdue (.5053)
3. DJ White, Indiana (.4955)
4. Goran Suton, Michigan State (.4506)
5. Brian Butch, Wisconsin (.4502)
6. Ekpe Udoh, Michigan (.4165)
7. Cyrus Tate, Iowa (.4043)
8. Kosta Koufos, Ohio State (.4041)
9. Demetri McCamey, Illinois (.3979)
10. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (.3957)

Top Five Centers

1. DJ White, Indiana
2. Goran Suton, Michigan State
3. Ekpe Udoh, Michigan
4. Kosta Koufos, Ohio State
5. Brian Butch, Wisconsin

Top Five Power Forwards
1. Rob Hummel, Purdue
2. Kevin Coble, Northwestern
3. Jamelle Cornley, Penn State
4. Cyrus Tate, Iowa
5. Othello Hunter, Ohio State

Top Five Small Forwards
1. Jamarcus Ellis, Indiana
2. Raymar Morgan, Michigan State
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisconsin
4. Damian Johnson, Minnesota
5. Manny Harris, Michigan

Top Five Scoring Guards

1. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue
2. Demetri McCamey, Illinois
3. Eric Gordon, Indiana
4. Michael Flowers, Wisconsin
5. Drew Nietzel, Michigan State

Top Five Point Guards
1. Jamar Butler, Ohio State
2. Tony Freeman, Iowa
3. Chris Kramer, Purdue
4. Lawrence Westbrook, Minnesota
5. Michael Thompson, Northwestern

Top Ten Freshmen:
1. Rob Hummel, Purdue
2. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue
3. Demetri McCamey, Illinois
4. Eric Gordon, Indiana
5. Kosta Koufos, Ohio State
6. Al Nolen, Minnesota
7. Evan Turner, Ohio State
8. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State
9. Manny Harris, Michigan
10. Michael Thompson, Northwestern

Top Ten players to look out for in 2009!
1. Rob Hummel, Purdue
2. Goran Suton, Michigan State
3. Demetri McCamey, Illinois
4. Kevin Coble, Northwestern
5. Cyrus Tate, Iowa
6. Raymar Morgan, Michigan State
7. Damian Johnson, Minnesota
8. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue
9. Lawrence Westbrook, Minnesota
10. Zack Gibson, Michigan

1 comment:

Northwestern Basketball Fan said...

Thanks for your work on this.

It would be interesting to see the same efficiency stats for all players that will return next year overall and at each position as only 4 of the top ten will return next year -- no White, Butler, Ellis, Gordon, Udoh or Flowers. And only one (Suton) of the listed centers will return.

That will help in assessing what each team is returning.

Zack Gibson, as one of the top ten to look out for next year. This seems like an extrapolation from a too small sample of work last year. Don't think so.