Monday, August 1, 2011

Nebraska comes to the Big Ten

I crunched the efficiency numbers for Nebraska in Big XII games last season, and I don't think they really need to be adjusted much as that conference was relatively neck-and-neck with the Big Ten for toughness of schedule.
The full spreadsheet for the 2011 Big Ten season can still be found here, for comparison, but I'll break it down for you.

Nebraska basketball
player (possessions per game) production per game, production per possession
Lance Jeter (49.9) 24.2, .4858
Brian Jorge Diaz (43.3) 12.8, .2942
Toney McCray (38.3) 12.9, .3359
Brandon Richardson (39.9) 10.7, .2684
Caleb Walker (33.7) 11.6, .3458
Brandon Ubel (29.7) 7.3, .2469
Drake Beranek (27.8) 6.3, .2274
Andre Almedia (19.8) 7.5, .3779
Eshaunte Jones (18.8) 4.5, .2374
Ray Gallegos (11.2) 0.3, .0284
Christopher Niemann (4.1) 0.0, .0000

The first thing that pops out is that for possessing some decent if underwhelming per-game stats, Lance Jeter's efficiency performance would've landed him between Jordan Taylor & JaJuan Johnson last season. Woof. It's a good thing the Big Ten won't be facing him, as he and shooter Drake Beranek graduated. The next most-efficient player was Andre Almeida, who despite looking good on this scale, would've been slotted between Adriean Payne and David Curletti for reserve bigs. Returning forwards Toney McCray & Caleb Walker look pretty decent among returing Big Ten players, and rank in the top 25 in per-possession efficiency (although just 25th & 22nd, respectively). The other two big men, Brian Jorge Diaz & Brandon Ubel, are pretty mediocre, and the bench outside of Almeida is really unimpressive. Throw in an underwhelming recruiting class and the fact that low-efficiency gunner Bo Spencer is slated to take Jeter's minutes, and the inaugural Big Ten basketball road schedule looks fairly challenging for Doc Sadler's squad. While I think McCray & Walker will be nice features of the Nebraska 2012 team, and I do believe that individual statistical performance is no sure measure of future team success (cough* Illinois *cough), on the other hand, there's not much here to suggest that these guys could be any better than Michigan or Indiana. It really must fall on guards Brandon Richardson (who's right in the statistical neighborhood of Jordan Hulls) and Eshaunte Jones (ditto ...Will Sheehey) to improve their efficiency if the Huskers are to have achieve their hope and advance to a postseason.

Thursday, July 21, 2011

2011 School-by-school notes

Jaw-droppingly good! Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, Demetri McCamey all had arguments for being the top player on the team, but Jereme Richmond was simply the best in per-possession terms. Richmond's per-game production and lack of maturity didn't wow the NBA scouts, however. Without Richmond on the team, and without seniors Davis, Tisdale, McCamey, or Bill Cole in the line-up, Brandon Paul seems sure to be the featured scorer next season.
I'm concerned... The regression of Tyler Griffey, Meyers Leonard, and even DJ Richardson over the course of the season has got to concern Bruce Weber. He's got a nice-rated recruiting class and a nice transfer in point Sam Maniscalco, but I just don't see a winning team in Champaign next season. I think I'm the only one, but frosh bigs don't often immediately succeed under Weber, and returning bigs Leonard & Griffey were hovering around Ahanmisi-levels of per-possession effectiveness, so how do the Illini compete in the paint?
I can haz more PT? Obviously Brandon Paul needs the most minutes of the returnees, but despite my criticism above I would still argue that Meyers Leonard needs to be force-fed minutes. Really, unless Shaw, Egwu, and/or Djimide are way under-rated, Leonard's the only hope for the Illini to have a post-season next year.

Jaw-droppingly good! Tom Pritchard's nice bounce-back after a very disappointing sophomore campaign is really one of the best stories here. Victor Oladipo really opened some eyes with a solid freshman campaign - hanging in the area of Tim Hardaway & Josh Gasser in per-possession terms. Injuries clearly played a part of Verdell Jones and Christian Watford's reduced effectiveness, and as these two players were the hubs of IU's offense this year, when their timing was off, the Hoosiers struggled. Jordan Hulls, despite a late slump, did have a nice jump in overall efficiency despite playing crazy minutes. Still, Jones and Pritchard were the only decent high-usage players that IU had this year, and it showed.
I'm concerned... Bobby Capobianco & Derek Elston's regression was disappointing, but so was the whole team peaking mid-conference. Elston is really has to bounce back, but given Pritchard's development, there's hope. I was personally a little disappointed in Matt Roth's career becoming little more than desperation-three specialist. Will Sheehey didn't post great numbers, but there'll be PT for anyone as eagerly willing to guard anyone on the floor.
I can haz more PT? Victor Oladipo was such an obvious choice for more playing time that the Big Ten Geeks created a #FreeOladipo hashtag. And it's true, he does need to play more, as he was the best per-possession player for the Hoosiers. Tom Pritchard has bounced back nicely from a disappointing sophomore season, and should be ready shoulder decent minutes alongside incoming frosh Cody Zeller. Even if Verdell Jones and Christian Watford can end their struggles by shifting to the wing and staying healthy, and Hulls runs the point efficiently while Zeller & Pritchard hold down the paint without encountering massive foul trouble - even then Crean should still be able to find starting minutes for Oladipo.

Jaw-droppingly good! Melsahn Basabe is the surprise of the conference, but Bryce Cartwright should be mentioned, too. The fact that Fran McCaffrey was able to bring in two Big Ten-level starters over the summer should serve notice to the rest of the league- don't sleep on Iowa!
I'm concerned... Matt Gatens and Eric May have not been the improved players I expected them to be, with May in particularly regressing. Frosh Zach McCabe and Roy Devyn Marble weren't all that great, either.
I can haz more PT? Cartwright and Basabe shouldn't lose any minutes, but Devon Archie and Andrew Brommer have been nice surprises off the bench. I don't see any need for increased PT for any one player going into next season other than Archie, but he has the combo of a low free throw % and a turnover rate that tends make coaches nervous. Archie's probably the best option to help Basabe inside, but I'm guessing Brommer gets the starting nod next season.

Jaw-droppingly good! Darius Morris' improvement has been jaw-dropping indeed. He has the look of a future NBA point guard, and no Big Ten team relies so heavily on one player to create offense. Zach Novak's improved performance tailed off in the second half of the season, but I suspect that was due to the fact that the team was figuring out to best utilize stellar frosh Tim Hardaway Jr. Jordan Morgan also had a very nice frosh campaign in the middle, but his best games (like v. NU) tended to come when Morris was breaking down the defense and giving him wide-open dunks and lay-ups. It'll be interesting to see what Morgan and the rest of the Wolverines can do without Morris next season.
I'm concerned... Evan Smotrycz is currently to be the least efficient player in the rotation. Blake McLimans hasn't seen much time, but registering zeroes is never a good sign.
I can haz more PT? Clearly Hardaway's going to get more minutes, and the incoming freshmen backcourt will probably be given lots of opportunities to succeed. However, without Morris, senior Stu Douglass will have to see his already large PT load largely devoted to running the point and Novak will probably be initiating the offense. I'm not super-optimistic on the 2011-2012 Wolverines, but I wasn't last year either.

Michigan State
Jaw-droppingly good! Still Draymond Green. Simply the best per-possession and per-game player in the conference, and a very, very large part of all of MSU's close wins. Kalin Lucas appears to be playing at the best of his career, and Delvon Roe is second only to Sullinger and JaJuan Johnson in the middle.
I'm concerned... Three top-ten players, and this is still a mediocre team in the conference. Along with Minnesota, this was one of the big mysteries of the conference with how an Izzo-led team that was so talented was barely able to get into the NCAA tourney. Of the players coming back next season, I'm largely concerned with Keith Appling, whose numbers weren't so bad for a freshmen off-guard, but have to improve if he's playing point guard. And Appling probably will need to be a steady presence in the backcourt as transfer Brandon Wood seems likely to step right into Kalin Lucas' scoring point role.
I can haz more PT? Granted, my system favors reserve big men, but Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne seem to be the best of that bunch. Unfortunately, Green and Roe seem to do best at the 4 and 5-spots, and not the 3 and 4. They'll be good insurance if Roe continues to have health problems, tho. Outside of that... well, the freshmen, redshirts, and transfers will have a lot of opportunity to make big impacts if they're ready.

Jaw-droppingly good! For a guy who I never expected to play, Trevor Mbakwe has been truly jaw-droppingly good. Clearly the best bet to play in the NBA, Mbakwe is a monster rebounder and giant presence inside. It's probably because he's so good in the paint (and only in the paint) that Ralph Sampson III has tried to show his versatility by taking his game outside more often... with *ahem* mixed results. Otherwise, Rodney Williams also posted above-average e per-possession numbers, but didn't really show any growth from his frosh campaign. Blake Hoffarber actually rebounded nicely from a rough transition to point guard, after the Gophers lost a top ten-type guy at the spot with Al Nolen's injury.
I'm concerned... The depth for next season is largely dependent on the freshmen and redshirts, and it's all question marks at this point. One thing is for certain, the out-of-his-depth Maverick Ahanmisi is unlikely to challenge for significant playing time again.
I can haz more PT? Blake Hoffarber's efficiency rebounded down the stretch, although the team backpedaled its way out the NCAA tournament. Austin Hollins ended up with decent stats - due largely to an impressive steal rate, but I'd still look for Tubby's talented freshmen & Juco guards to really get the first crack at starting next season. The frontcourt is very impressive, and Tubby could sneak them into the NCAA tournament again, but they'll need to get every break they didn't get last season.

Jaw-droppingly good! Juice Thompson was quite the leader this year despite shouldering insane minutes, and guards Alex Marcotullio and JerShon Cobb have been pleasant surprises as well. Davide Curletti posted the sort of numbers one expects from a reserve big man, and should help keep the paint under control even as the overall depth thins out next year.
I'm concerned... Drew Crawford has really faded from a stellar freshman performance, and Shurna has also taken a step back due to various injuries. Are the injuries a result of the insane minutes that Carmody is making Shurna play out of position? It's hard to tell at this point, as both could bounce back easily, but the two issues that concern me the most for the Wildcats in 2011-2012 are depth and point guard.
I can haz more PT? Davide Curletti, Cobb, and Marcotullio should see essentially starter's minutes next season, but it'll be hard to get by without giving either raw recruits Tre Demps and/or David Sobolewski heavy minutes at the point. If Demps is impact-ready, than NU's NCAA tourney hopes have never been higher. If recruiting rankings are accurate, the last best chance for Carmody to break the "curse" probably sails on by in 2012.

Ohio State
Jaw-droppingly good! Jared Sullinger was still great even with a second-half decline. Really amazing was the high level of play displayed by Aaron Craft as a freshman point. This was an incredible freshman class when you consider that wings Lenzelle Smith and Jordan Sibert were largely disappointing and transfer Evan Ravenel and forward JD Weatherspoon didn't even play.
I'm concerned... Dallas Lauderdale regressed on efficiency, but he largely gave the team what they needed. Lenzelle Smith and Jordan Sibert got very few minutes and didn't do much in the time that they had them, which may not seem like such a big deal except that there's no developed depth for next year on the perimeter. With a great recruiting class coming in, one assumes that Matta will have a lot more depth next year, but there are a number of question marks.
I can haz more PT? DeShaun Thomas is the one guy on the team who really looks like he deserves more minutes than he gets. His three-point stroke and rebounding should play very well with Sullinger, but together they're a bit of a short frontcourt. It's likely that incoming frosh Amir Williams or transfer Evan Ravenel get the starting nod for this reason, but Matta really needs someone else to show up on the wing alongside William Buford, who looks to be the primary go-to scorer for next season.

Penn State
Jaw-droppingly good! Jeff Brooks & Talor Battle. Jeff Brooks was an amazing presence inside, and Jackson and Battle have both been at the top of the standings for their positions, and even better, Tim Frazier looks to be the star of next year's team. Talor Battle's shift to off-guard hurt his efficiency a little bit, but allowed Frazier to shine and gave PSU the spacing it needed to maximize Brooks' scoring ability. Give DeChellis credit for squeezing two point guards and two power forwards into a line-up that got the Lions into the field of 68 for the first time in years.
I'm concerned... I could carp about Andrew Jones, but the problem for new coach Pat Chambers is that there was zero depth here. Billy Oliver, Cameron Woodyard, and Jemaine Marshall are put up walk-on numbers. All three ranked in the bottom third of the conference, and returning redshirted center Sasa Borovnjak was hardly the model of per-possession efficiency in 2010, slotted between Jon Lickliter & Austin Thorton.
I can haz more PT? Tim Frazier and um, uh.... cough cough. Sasa Borovnjak and the freshmen better be ready to make an impact, 'cause when Jemaine Marshall (per-possession, the 51st-ranked returning player in the conference) is your #2 option, you know you're in trouble. New Coach Pat Chambers is going to take one on the chin next season, but luckily the first season after a big coaching change is usually a freebie. However, more ominous for PSU fans is the fact that your coach, coming off an unusually successful season, jumps at a chance to coach the Navy team. Ouch!

Jaw-droppingly good! JaJuan Johnson was outstanding as the best center in the conference - and he had some very stiff competition. E'Twuann Moore was fantastic on the wing, and guards Lewis Jackson & Ryne Smith stepped up beyond what anyone could expect. DJ Byrd also opened some eyes with his scrappy performances, but hopefully he plays less power forward next year as he caused the team some real defensive match-up problems.
I'm concerned... Painter got essentially nothing out of bench bigs Bade & Marcius, and Bade has now left the team. The paint will be occupied for Painter next season by Robbie Hummel (and his hopefully healthy knees) and sophomore Travis Carroll, with back-up from Marcius and two not particularly large freshmen.
I can haz more PT? Losing Moore (a four-year production star) and Johnson (who shined both years Hummel was out) really hurts, tho. Ryne Smith & Lewis Jackson provide one of the league's best backcourts, but questions abound. Can Hummel come back at the sort of star-level performance that everyone's accustomed to? How do Travis Carroll and the incoming freshmen bigs hold down the paint? What's with Kelsey Barlow? Will Terone Johnson improve enough to start on the wing, or will DJ Byrd & Ryne Smith have to hold those spots down? I'm curious to see how , but I just know that Painter will have another solid team next season that's once again involved in the Big Ten championship race.

Jaw-droppingly good! Jordan Taylor really locks this one up as his growth curve has been outstanding over the last several seasons. Taylor goes into his senior year as the primary reason for confidence that coach Bo Ryan has. However, Josh Gasser also deserves mention as a nice find as a freshman, and Jared Berggren's solid performance in very limited minutes should suggest that he's ready to be at least a part-time starter.
I'm concerned... Outside of Taylor, Gasser, and Berggren - who else should get more minutes? Certainly Mike Bruesewitz will, but he was not as impressive off the bench this season as I thought he would be. I really thought Ryan Evans and Rob Wilson would step up their effective production, and they really didn't.
I can haz more PT? Berggren and Bruesewitz will get more minutes, but they were really only average in per-possession terms, and Bo is going to need heavy minutes out of redshirt Evan Anderson and either of the frosh big men (most likely Jared Uthoff). Some depth on the wings would really be nice too, but either Ben Brust needs to show up or Ryan Evans needs to play every game like it's the final minute of the Purdue game.

2011 Final Ratings

The full spreadsheet can be found here. The what and why can be found here.

It was an interesting year in the Big Ten in efficiency terms. Overall, the overall average efficiency took a bit of dive in the second half of conference play, and while there were of course exceptions, it's interesting that the per-possession median and the per-game production actually went up. One easy explanation is that coaches just followed Thad Matta and Bill Carmody's lead and shortened their benches, trying to squeeze more out of their best players even if it meant they were less efficient. Personally, I definitely prefer Izzo's play every guy approach, but it's not my job on the line, I suppose. Anyway, without further ado, the stats and top performers!

Overall per-game mean: 11.1
Overall per-game median: 10.4
Overall per-possession mean: .2994
Overall per-possession median: .3077

Top Ten Per-possession
1. Draymond Green, MSU (.5611)
2. Jordan Taylor, Wis. (.5451)
3. Jajaun Johnson, Pur. (.4791)
4. Jared Sullinger, OSU (.4769)
5. Melsahn Basabe, Iowa (.4661)
6. Trevor Mbakwe, Minn. (.4635)
7. Jeff Brooks, PSU (.4624)
8. Delvon Roe, MSU (.4519)
9. Jon Leuer, Wis. (.4395)
10. Derrick Nix, MSU (.4303)

Special Mention: Al Nolen, Minn. (.4385)

Top Ten Per-game Producers
1. Jordan Taylor, Wis. (28.6)
2. Jajaun Johnson, Pur. (28.2)
3. Draymond Green, MSU (27.3)
4. Jared Sullinger, OSU (25.3)
5. Trevor Mbakwe, Minn. (23.8)
6. Jeff Brooks, PSU (23.6)
7. E'Twuann Moore, Pur. (23.4)
8. Mike Davis, Illinois (22.5)
9. Darius Morris, Mich. (22.3)
10. Jon Leuer, Wis. (21.3)

Freshmen Fifteen
Jared Sullinger, OSU 28.2/.4769
Jereme Richmond, Illinois 15.3/.4246
Aaron Craft 18.2/.3704
Tim Hardaway, Mich. 17.3/.3601
Josh Gasser, Wis. 14.5/.3587

Victor Oladipo, Ind. 10.4/.3505
Adriean Payne, MSU 4.9/.3761
Jordan Morgan, Mich. 12.8/.3322
DeShaun Thomas, OSU 5.9/.3199
JerShon Cobb, NU 12.1/.3079

Austin Hollins, Minn. 7.8/.3046
Chip Armelin, Minn. 4.8/.2699
Travis Carroll, Pur. 3.9/.2676
Terone Johnson, Pur. 7.8/.2558
Keith Appling, MSU 10.4/.2557
and at #16: Will Sheehey, Ind. 6.1/.2387

Tuesday, February 15, 2011

2011 mid-season team notes on player efficiencies

My analysis, cross-posted, of the individual player rating stats I crunched for the first-half of the conference season, and what it might mean for each Big Ten team. The rating system and its explanation can be found here. Without further ado, here's my school-by-school notes.

Jaw-droppingly good! McCamey's been pretty good still, but not the senior superstar most expected. Mike Davis is playing as well as he ever has, but the real surprise is despite Bill Cole's solid performance, Jereme Richmond is just flat-out demanding more minutes with his very good numbers. Richmond is the future of the Illini, and it'll be interesting to see how next year's stellar class fits in with him.
I'm concerned... DJ Richardson continues hit open jumpers and not do much else, and Brandon Paul shoots a lot without much efficiency. However, the regression of Tyler Griffey and Meyers Leonard in conference play has to concern Bruce Weber. If Davis or Mike Tisdale aren't playing aggressively, who does he go to?
I can haz more PT? Joseph Bertrand has posted good efficiency numbers is his very limited minutes, and probably deserves some more time. However, he'd have to take minutes away from Cole or Richmond for that to happen this season. Otherwise, I think the perception of this being a disappointing season for the Illini is a little overstated by their fans. The Big Ten is a great conference this year, and it's hard to win a lot of games with seniors who never really displayed dominance as a team.


Jaw-droppingly good! Uhhhhh, maybe "jaw-droppingly average?" Verdell Jones maintaining his effective performance despite injuries bears mention, as does Jordan Hulls' giant jump in efficiency despite increased usage. Christian Watford's average performance as a featured part of the offense has been pleasant for IU fans, as has his relatively quick return from injury. Jeremiah Rivers would be really good if only he could keep the turnovers under control.
I'm concerned... Maurice Creek was, unfortunately, the disappointment of the season, as he would've been valuable if he'd been 80% the player he was as a freshman. Creek was pretty obviously less than 50% before his injury. Bobby Capobianco & Derek Elston's regression has also been disappointing, but maybe that's just how Crean develops big men. After all….
I can haz more PT? Tom Pritchard has bounced back nicely from a disappointing sophomore season, and is really the guy IU needs to play heavy minutes if they are to continue to surprise quality opponents (and the Big Ten has nothing quality opponents). Victor Oladipo does need to play more, as he's the best per-possession player for the Hoosiers, but I do like having Will Sheehey start – he seems to have quick hands and an aggressive attitude from the opening tip that's catching. And if he picks up a foul or two early, it's not crippling for the team. Matt Roth also is playing decently in-conference.

Jaw-droppingly good! Melsahn Basabe is the surprise of the conference, but Bryce Cartwright should be mentioned, too. The fact that Fran McCaffrey was able to bring in two Big Ten-level starters over the summer should serve notice to the rest of the league- don't sleep on Iowa!
I'm concerned... Matt Gatens and Eric May have not been the improved players I expected them to be, and Zach McCabe and Devyn Marble haven't been all that great, either. Still, Marble at least looks to be a future starter for the Hawkeyes, and May is recovering from injuries.
I can haz more PT? Jarryd Cole and Basabe shouldn't lose any minutes, but Devon Archie and Andrew Brommer have been nice surprises off the bench. Outside of Marble, I don't see any need for increased PT for any one player, but it's been surprising how fast McCaffrey has made this a dangerous team with an entirely different playing style.

Jaw-droppingly good! Darius Morris' improvement has been jaw-dropping indeed. He has the look of a future NBA point guard, and no Big Ten team relies so heavily on one player to create offense. Maybe others have been surprised, but I think Novak's improved performance this year was to be expected. After all, he's finally playing in position, & is no longer forced to match up against guys like Blake Griffin!
I'm concerned... Stu Douglass, Jordan Morgan, and Tim Hardaway weren't looking all that great efficiency-wise, but post-number-crunching they each have had breakout games, so who knows. Evan Smotrycz is currently to be the least efficient player in the rotation. Blake McLimans hasn't seen much time, but registering zeroes is never a good sign.
I can haz more PT? Jon Horford should see a few more minutes, in my estimation, as Jordan Morgan was the worst starting center in the conference. However, Morgan's got the size and runs a mean pick-and-roll with Morris, but keep an eye on Horford this season and next. Otherwise, the fact Michigan is even discussing a possible NCAA berth this late in the season should redeem Beilien for last year.

Michigan State

Jaw-droppingly good! Still Draymond Green. Simply the best per-possession and per-game player in the conference, and a very, very large part of all of MSU's close wins. Kalin Lucas appears to be playing at the best of his career, and Delvon Roe is second only to Sullinger and JaJuan Johnson in the middle.
I'm concerned... Three top-ten players, and this is still a mediocre team in the conference. Durrell Summers seems to be the most hurt from Korie Lucious' dismissal, as Lucas' assists seem to go mostly to the bigs, while Lucious found Summers and Appling for open shots. That said, Summers (and Appling) needs to step it up in a serious way if MSU is to have any life in the post-season.
I can haz more PT? Granted, my system favors reserve big men, but Derrick Nix and Adriean Payne seem to be the best of that bunch. Unfortunately, Green and Roe seem to do best at the 4 and 5-spots, and not the 3 and 4. If Nix can integrate himself into the line-up and get major minutes while not decreasing Roe and Green's effectiveness, MSU may be able to rally. Chris Allen's dismissal and Russell Byrd's injury are also really being felt right now by Sparty fans.

Jaw-droppingly good! For a guy who I never expected to play, Trevor Mbakwe has been truly jaw-droppingly good. Right now, he's playing at the three-spot and still dominating. It bears mentioning that point guards Al Nolen and Devoe Joseph were playing quite efficiently before the injury and apparent losing-of-the-marbles, respectively.
I'm concerned... Blake Hoffarber is the worst point guard in the conference, but it's obviously not his fault. Really, the lack of depth at this position is a real concern, as the departed transfer Justin Cobbs wasn't great last season, but he was a lot better than the out-of-his-depth Maverick Ahanmisi.
I can haz more PT? Al Nolen needs to get healthy. Rodney Williams and Blake Hoffarber's efficiencies are suffering as they play out of position. Chip Armelin strikes me as the guy who really needs to start getting more minutes, even though he can't shoot from distance, he really just makes things happen.


Jaw-droppingly good! Juice Thompson has been quite the leader this year despite shouldering insane minutes, and guards Alex Marcotullio and JerShon Cobb have been pleasant surprises as well.
I'm concerned... Drew Crawford has really faded in conference play, posting per-possession numbers equivalent to the other worst rotation player, Davide Curletti. Shurna has also taken a step back, but it's hard to call his performance disappointing as he struggles through injuries and remains productive.
I can haz more PT? I've long been a Mike Capocci advocate, and so to see him play a crucial part in almost upsetting Ohio State was satisfying. However, I can't figure out why Bill Carmody doesn't give his starting forwards more rest as they invariably seem to break down with the heavy minutes foisted upon them. You can ask Juice Thompson or Craig Moore to play 95% of your possessions, but Shurna and Coble take a lot of abuse in the post, and when valuable per-possession players like Peljusic and Capocci are just riding the pine, I can't figure out why he doesn't spare his key players some punishment. Furthermore, it has become apparent that Carmody ended NU's NCAA hopes when he chased away Kevin Coble, instead of being patient with a talented young man who never had basketball as his life's priority. I realize Northwestern has never had it so good, but they are no threat to ever make the NCAA's as currently led by Carmody. If perpetual NIT snubs are good enough for the NU administration, so be it.

Ohio State
Jaw-droppingly good! Um, Jared Sullinger. Amazing. However, I should note David Lighty –the one-time afterthought in another amazing recruiting class- has become a really solid multi-position player. Also, Aaron Craft has been shockingly good for a freshman point, but it's easy to rack up assists when there's this much talent surrounding you. We'll see next season if he's more like Bobby Hurley or Greg Paulus.
I'm concerned... Thad Matta plays Lighty, Diebler, Buford, Craft, and Sullinger heavy minutes, and Lauderdale and Thomas only in rotation. This may get him into trouble in the postseason if the Buckeyes run into foul trouble or injuries, as only Jordan Sibert gets any minutes on the perimeter.
I can haz more PT? DeShaun Thomas is the one guy on the team who really looks like he deserves more minutes than he gets. You could make an argument for Sibert or Smith to get more minutes, but until OSU looks vulnerable (and even post-Wisconsin, they really don't), why would you argue with Matta?

Penn State
Jaw-droppingly good! Jeff Brooks. Efficient, productive, and when he was out for a home game with Michigan, Penn State missed him big-time. Jackson and Battle have both been good, and Andrew Jones finally returned to form, somewhat. Tim Frazier looks to be the star of next year's team.
I'm concerned... Zero depth here, as the bench is terrible. Billy Oliver, Cameron Woodyard, and Jemaine Marshall are putting up walk-on numbers. Oliver, for example, is about half as efficient the 10th player on last year's squad – (the redshirted) Sasa Borovnjak.
I can haz more PT? Um, Taran Buie may not have been great in the pre-season, but he was another player at least. If he could convince DeChellis that he'd shaped up and return, it would help this team out a lot. As it stands now, he may not ever come back.

Jaw-droppingly good! For all of the wailing that Boiled Sports and Hammer and Rails has done about E'Twuann Moore, he's the clearly the best off-guard in the best conference in the country – performing at a much higher rate than Talor Battle. I think they expect him to be some fantasized version of Michael Jordan or something, but honestly – what more can he do? JaJuan Johnson might be the best center in the league at the end of the season, but he's currently taking a backseat to Sullinger, which, y'know, who isn't? Lewis Jackson has really stepped up his production, as has Ryne Smith. I know Boilers hate to hear this, but with a healthy Hummel, this likely would have been a championship squad.
I'm concerned... The lack of quality depth inside is less dire than I worried it might be, as Carroll and Bade are putting up average per-possession stats. However, they are doing this in less than half of the available minutes at the four-spot, meaning that Kelsey Barlow and DJ Byrd are filling in for the majority of those minutes.
I can haz more PT? Matt Painter's done a pretty great job, and I don't have anything really to comment on. Maybe Barlow could use a few more minutes and Smith could use a few less, and I'm curious to see how Carroll develops, but this is a good deep team.


Jaw-droppingly good! Jordan Taylor's growth is now on an Evan Turner-like scale, except that Turner was a least a legit starter from the time he stepped on campus. Jon Leuer's got relatively low efficiency for the impact he has on the game, and it's been a while since I've such a tough, yet skilled big man. He reminds me a lot of Alan Henderson. And Keaton Nankivil is really opening eyes with his surprising performances, right now- he's the best B10 power forward not named Green, Brooks, or Mbakwe.
I'm concerned... Ryan Evans and Rob Wilson are both good athletes, but are putting up truly terrible numbers. The regression is not such a big deal this season, but who's gonna start at forward alongside Bruesewitz next season?
I can haz more PT? Nothing obvious here, except I'd like to see Jared Berggren get some more possessions as he's the likely starter for UW next year, as far as I can tell. Bo Ryan is squeezing his top players for their production, and he is getting results.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

2011 Ratings- Conference Halfway Point

The full spreadsheet can be found here. The what and why is here.

Quick notes: The Big Ten is definitely better than in recent years. The efficiency ratings are up across the board, and this despite the loss of a *lot* of key players. I did include six players in my ratings that may not play again this season (Nolen, Joseph, Watford, Lucious, Creek, and Hart), but none of them are real outliers who would've affected the data. And quick btw- check out MSU's presence in the ratings- one wonders how they're playing so poorly, until you look at Korie Lucious' numbers and see that he was playing pretty well in the Big Ten game (11.7/.3017). It's little wonder that the Sparties have crashed with only the disappointing Summers and Appling (and walk-ons) to rely on otherwise on the wing.

The Highlights
Overall per-game mean: 10.7
Overall per-game median: 9.8
Overall per-possession mean: .3069
Overall per-possession median: .3017

Top 10 per-possession
1. Draymond Green, MSU (.6523)
2. Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota (.5742)
3. Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (.5415)
4. Jeff Brooks, Penn State (.5305)
5. Derrick Nix, MSU (.5283)
6. Jared Sullinger, OSU (.5171)
7. Delvon Roe, MSU (.5141)
8. Jereme Richmond, Illinois (.4963)
9. Darius Morris, Michigan (.4933)
10. Keaton Nankivil, Wisconsin (.4903)

Top 10 per-game
1. Draymond Green, MSU (33.0)
2. Jeff Brooks, Penn State (29.6)
3. Trevor Mbakwe, Minnesota (28.7)
4. Jared Sullinger, OSU (28.5)
5. Jordan Taylor, Wisconsin (28.3)
6. JaJuan Johnson, Purdue (27.5)
7. Etwuann Moore, Purdue (24.8)
8. Darius Morris, Michigan (24.6)
9. Kalin Lucas, MSU (23.1)
10. Delvon Roe, MSU (22.2)

Freshman 15 - First team
Jared Sullinger, OSU (28.5/.5171)
Jereme Richmond, Illinois (15.9/.4963)
Melsahn Basabe, Iowa (20.2/.4879)
Aaron Craft, OSU (17.6/.3643)
Victor Oladipo, Indiana (12.1/.3807)

Second team:
Adriean Payne, MSU (3.7/.4156)
Deshaun Thomas, OSU (6.2/.3138)
Chip Armelin, Minnesota (5.0/.3183)
Terone Johnson, Purdue (9.3/.3196)
Josh Gasser, Wisconsin (12.1/.3918)

Third team:
Travis Carroll, Purdue (4.7/.2834)
Jordan Morgan, Michigan (8.9/.2516)
Will Sheehey, Indiana (5.4/.2816)
Tim Hardaway, Jr., Michigan (12.1/.2689)
Jershon Cobb, Northwestern (12.9/.2842)

[HM: Jon Horford, Michigan (3.7/.2939)]

Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Per-Possession Efficiency Breakdown 2010

A little bit of breaking down of the individual player rating stats I crunched, and what it all might mean. I'll list my school-by-school notes, and then the top tens.


Jaw-droppingly good! Demetri McCamey played very well despite the position switch and the loss of Meachem and Frazier. He's the best point guard in the conference, and that's saying a lot. Hey, Illini fans- do you still wish you'd gotten Eric Gordon instead of McCamey?
I'm concerned... I really think it was pretty outrageous that DJ Richardson got the Freshman of the Year award. His per-possession efficiency was 89th out of 117 players, and it was well below Christian Watford's efficiency rating to boot. Were the only criteria three-point and free-throw shooting?
I can haz more PT? Tyler Griffey posted some very efficient numbers in his limited time so far. He'll get more PT next season.

Jaw-droppingly good! Well, there wasn't a lot of that this season. Verdell Jones maintaining his effective performance despite increased usage bears mention here. Otherwise, it's Derek Elston & Bobby Capobianco's surprisingly effective play off the bench that's the biggest positive.
I'm concerned...Jordan Hulls' had a very low rating that despite his outburst against Northwestern, declined as the season went on. Tom Pritchard wasn't great, but actually bounced back statistically in the second half of the Big Ten season. Also, Devan Dumes had a poor showing in his final season.
I can haz more PT? Capobianco & Elston really need more time on the floor if Watford and Pritchard continue to struggle next season. Mostly, the Hoosiers' hopes pivot on a full recovery by Maurice Creek.

Jaw-droppingly good! Aaron Fuller had an amazing year, really, and will be missed. Centers Jarryd Cole and Andrew Brommer also showed some efficiency I didn't expect.
I'm concerned... Matt Gatens had a bad year, but Cully Payne can't continue to be the answer at point unless he makes some real improvements. Brennan Cougill bounced back from a bad showing in conference play, but he won't be returning for a year.
I can haz more PT? Um, Cole and Brommer are going to get more minutes, as the interior depth will be even shallower next season for new coach McCaffrey. The numbers don't really favor anyone else, but I think Eric May & Matt Gatens are going to be better next season.

Jaw-droppingly good! DeShawn Sims. He's was Michigan's best player and everyone knew it, but he kept up his numbers with a very good efficiency rating. Manny Harris pretty obviously had his eye on the NBA all season, and it resulted in a disappointing regression in 2010.
I'm concerned... Stu Douglass and Laval Lucas-Perry got plenty of minutes, and but were pretty poor in efficiency. Also, I can't believe that Anthony Wright got about the same amount of time Zack Gibson. It actually makes me start to question if my esteem of coach Beilien is too high.
I can haz more PT? Matt Vogrich had surprisingly good numbers for a rookie and a shooter. And Darius Morris did a fine job for a freshman point. This could be Michigan's starting backcourt for a while.

Michigan State
Jaw-droppingly good! Draymond Green. Simply the best per-possession player in the conference, and a very, very large part of MSU's injury-hobbled run to the Final Four. Raymar Morgan had a great senior year. I have every confidence that he'll make it onto an NBA roster very soon.
I'm concerned... There's not a lot of quality backcourt depth here. I know Korie Lucious had a good run in the tournament, but his conference play was not great. And with Lucas being somewhat fragile, the freshmen wings are really going to have be reliable in their first season.
I can haz more PT? The one name on the roster that has really impressed me efficiency-wise is Delvon Roe. Of course Draymond Green leads the conference and should get more PT, but Roe had a great conference season after an auspicious start. And his ability to hold down the middle was another key to MSU's postseason success. Next season, Delvon Roe may finally be the dominant post player he was projected to be when he first arrived at MSU.

Jaw-droppingly good! Damian Johnson did a really great job of being effective without scoring a lot of points, and Ralph Sampson is blossoming at center. I'm not sure he's NBA-worthy just yet, but he's getting there.
I'm concerned... Actually, the numbers here are all really solid. Only the departed Justin Cobbs was below average. Bryant Allen probably shouldn't get picked on for his garbage time performance, but still, registering zeros ain't good.
I can haz more PT? Al Nolen needs to get eligible. Rodney Williams also has sterling per-possession stats, and more minutes would remove all doubts about his abilities. He'll get those minutes next season, there's not much depth on the wing otherwise.

Jaw-droppingly good! John Shurna had a great year, and if he continues to improve, NU has a great shot at the NCAA's for the first time ever. Luka Mirkovic is shockingly in the thick of it for the Big Ten's best center. Also, Jeremy Nash had a very strong final season after a rough start in conference play.
I'm concerned... Michael "Juice" Thompson was formerly an also-ran in the Big Ten's best point-guard discussion, but he seems to be fading with more minutes. Also, Alex Marcotullio seems like a natural fit for the starting off-guard spot next season, given his steal and shooting numbers, but his other numbers really detract from his overall efficiency. I'm not sure if he hack it.
I can haz more PT? I've been a Mike Capocci fan for a while, so it'd be great to see him get some more minutes. Other than that, though, I think Carmody's going to give the should-have-been-freshman-of-the-year Drew Crawford as many minutes as he can shoulder next season. There are good things to look forward to next season despite the apparent abrupt loss of Kevin Coble. Reserve center-forward David Curletti improved throughout the year and senior Jeff Ryan finally returns after finding a niche as a highly effective reserve.

Ohio State
Jaw-droppingly good! Only one player really fits this description, truly, and it is Evan Turner. However, William Buford also had a nice year, getting a lot of usage and delivering. Buford will be the star next year, unless one of the freshman *cough*Sullinger*cough* supplants him.
I'm concerned... Jon Diebler got a ton of minutes while not doing anything other hitting threes, which is valuable, I'll admit, but he really didn't contribute anything else.
I can haz more PT? The only returning bench player, Nikola Kecman, saw very few minutes, but has decent enough numbers that I'd still like to see what he could contribute, if given a chance.

Penn State
Jaw-droppingly good! Talor Battle is, of course, very good, and actually seemed to get a lot more effective as the year wore on. The player that really surprised me, tho, was Jeff Brooks. How was he so efficient that he looks like the top returning small forward next season?
I'm concerned... Andrews Jones and Ott were not great. Post play looms as a possible weakness again next season.
I can haz more PT? Tim Frazier had a pretty good year for a freshman point guard. He and Jeff Brooks will probably see more minutes next year. Otherwise, Battle and David Jackson will rely on the freshmen to help turn this club around.

Jaw-droppingly good! Robbie Hummel. He's definitely my pick for 2011 Big 10 Player of the Year. E'Twuann Moore and JaJuan Johnson are also quite good, which is great news for Coach Painter's 2010-2011 year.
I'm concerned... The freshmen class was disappointing overall. Patrick Bade didn't contribute anything, and DJ Byrd was truly terrible during the conference season. Kelsey Barlow's rating was pretty low, but rebounded to a point where he might be a starter next season.
I can haz more PT? Lewis Jackson's return really helped the depth of this club, and he'll probably see starter's minutes next year. However, the incoming freshmen are going to have to be relied upon- Hummel, Johnson, and Moore can't do it all for the entire season.

Jaw-droppingly good! Jordan Taylor's growth was an integral part of an excellent three-guard lineup. His ability to play defense and point guard will be essential to the Badger's success next season.
I'm concerned... There wasn't a lot of quality depth here last season, and I'm not sure who replaces Trevon Hughes and Jason Bohannon's contributions on the wings. Ryan Evans and Rob Wilson are both decent players, but neither are shooters, which might gum up the flex offense.
I can haz more PT? Mike Bruesewitz is the obvious choice to get some more minutes, except that they would come at the expense of Jon Leuer and Keaton Nankivil, who are both more effective than he is. I would posit that it is Leuer's health, really, and the corresponding minutes that he's able to play, that is the key to next season's success.

All Big Ten Players
F- Green, Draymond (40.7) 23.7 / .5821
F- Hummel, Robbie (51.9) 27.3 / .5262
C- Leuer, Jon (38.2) 18.2 / .4765
PG- McCamey, Demetri (58.2) 26.2 /.4502
SG- Turner, Evan (56.5) 34.9 / .5484

PF- Shurna, John (57.9) 25.1 / .4335
SF- Morgan, Raymar (43.9) 19.3 / .4385
C- Mirkovic, Luka (42.5) 19.6 / .4596
SG- Buford, William (55.6) 23.2 / .4169
PG- Battle, Talor (58.2) 24.1 / .4145

PF-Johnson, Damian (40.5) 17.3 / .4268
SF- Harris, Manny (53.5) 21.3 / .3974
C-Sampson, Ralph (41.9) 18.9 / .4521
SG- Bohannon, Jason (54.4) 19.0 / .3496
PG- Hughes, Trevon (47.7) 19.8 / .4161

Freshmen Fifteen
PF- Watford, Christian (48.1) 11.1 / .2317
SF- Williams, Rodney (16.7) 5.9 / .3551
C- Griffey, Tyler (13.1) 4.8 / .3676
SG- Crawford, Drew (44.3) 13.8 / .3109
PG- Frazier, Tim (23.6) 6.3 / .2673

PF- Elston, Derek (21.9) 7.3 / .3301
SF- Evans, Ryan (15.9) 5.1 / .3166
C- Capobianco, Bobby (21.7) 6.9 / .3162
SG- Vogrich, Matt (6.8) 1.9 / .2886
PG- Morris, Darius (38.5) 10.3 / .2667

PF- Cougill, Brennan (21.5) 4.4 / .2184
SF- May, Eric (51.9) 12.4 / .2386
C- Nix, Derrick (11.1) 3.5 / .3133
SG- Barlow, Kelsey (24.2) 6.8 / .2815
PG- Cobbs, Justin (16.6) 4.4 / .2661

Actual FOY- Richardson, DJ (50.8) 10.5 / .2071

Final efficiency Stats for 2010

The final version of my per-possession rating system is done (regular season conference games only). The usual mea culpas are in order for the lateness. However, looking back over the numbers from the first four or so conference games, my very early version turned out to be a pretty decent predictor of the final results.
As usual, the wherefores and the whys can be found here. The numbers are listed in this order:

Last Name, First Name (individual possessions per game) effective production per game / effective production per possession

Illinois (10-8)
McCamey, Demetri (58.2) 26.2 /.4502
Tisdale, Mike (50.0) 19.3 / .3859
Davis, Mike (49.6) 14.6 / .2941
Richardson, DJ (50.8) 10.5 / .2071
Paul, Brandon (24.8) 5.9 / .2386
Cole, Bill (40.3) 12.3 / .3006
Jordan, Jeff (18.9) 3.9 / .2077
Keller, Dominique (14.3) 3.0 / .2111
Griffey, Tyler (13.1) 4.8 / .3676

Indiana (4-14)
Jones, Verdell (54.8) 17.6 / .3219
Rivers, Jeremiah (54.7) 16.0 / .2923
Watford, Christian (48.1) 11.1 / .2317
Hulls, Jordan (47.6) 7.9 / .1668
Pritchard, Tom (32.8) 7.2 / .2201
Dumes, Devan (30.6) 6.2 / .2037
Elston, Derek (21.9) 7.3 / .3301
Capobianco, Bobby (21.7) 6.9 / .3162
Moore, Daniel (13.8) 2.8 /.2023
Muniru, Bawa (4.3) 0.9 /.2199
Jobe, Tijan (4.8) 0.3 / .0619

Iowa (4-14)
Fuller, Aaron (46.0) 17.2 / .3851
Gatens, Matt (55.6) 12.1 / .2167
Payne, Cully (50.6) 8.4 / .1667
Cole, Jarryd (36.2) 12.9 / .3572
May, Eric (51.9) 12.4 / .2386
Lickliter, John (13.4) 2.1 / .1575
Bawinkel, Devan (21.5) 3.9 / .1731
Brommer, Andrew (12.6) 4.1 / .3248
Cougill, Brennan (21.5) 4.4 / .2184

Michigan (7-11)
Harris, Manny (53.5) 21.3 / .3974
Sims, DeShawn (49.5) 22.9 / .4642
Novak, Zach (50.6) 12.9 / .2539
Douglass, Stu (50.1) 9.5 / .1892
Laval-Perry, Lucas (28.7) 6.3 / .2184
Morris, Darius (38.5) 10.3 / .2667
Vogrich, Matt (6.8) 1.9 / .2886
Gibson, Zack (12.6) 5.7 / .4519
Wright, Anthony (12.4) 0.9 / .0716

Michigan State (14-4)
Green, Draymond (40.7) 23.7 / .5821
Morgan, Raymar (43.9) 19.3 / .4385
Lucas, Kalin (50.6) 16.7 / .3299
Allen, Chris (45.5) 11.9 / .2623
Roe, Delvon (29.7) 11.6 / .3898
Summers, Durrell (42.3) 12.9 / .3061
Nix, Derrick (11.1) 3.5 / .3133
Lucious, Korie (34.2) 7.9 / .2301
Sherman, Garrick (10.2) 1.7 / .1666
Thornton, Austin (7.4) 0.9 / .1214
Dahlmann, Isaiah (4.4) 1.2 / .2708
Kebler, Mike (10.6) 0.9 / .0869
Herzog, Tom (3.4) 1.0 / .2949

Minnesota (9-9)

Johnson, Damian (40.5) 17.3 / .4268
Nolen, Al (41.3) 14.1 / .3407
Sampson, Ralph (41.9) 18.9 / .4521
Hoffarber, Blake (46.8) 15.4 / .3299
Westbrook, Lawrence (43.3) 13.6 / .3149
Carter, Paul (22.7) 7.4 / .3283
Williams, Rodney (16.7) 5.9 / .3551
Iverson, Colton (24.2) 7.1 / .2925
Joseph, Devoe (40.6) 13.1 / .3232
Bostick, Devron (13.2) 4.6 / .3474
Cobbs, Justin (16.6) 4.4 / .2661
Allen, Bryant (4.4) 0 / 0

Northwestern (7-11)
Shurna, John (57.9) 25.1 / .4335
Mirkovic, Luka (42.5) 19.6 / .4596
Thompson, Michael (58.1) 17.3 / .2983
Crawford, Drew (44.3) 13.8 / .3109
Nash, Jeremy (53.9) 17.9 / .3329
Marcotullio, Alex (18.6) 3.5 /.1867
Rowley, Kyle (11.3) 2.9 / .2636
Curletti, Davide (10.5) 3.1 / .2932
Peljusic, Ivan (7.1) 1.9 / .2656
Capocci, Mike (11.7) 4.0 / .3447
Fruendt, Nick (4.8) 1.3 / .2648

Ohio State (14-4)
Turner, Evan (56.5) 34.9 / .5484
Buford, William (55.6) 23.2 / .4169
Lighty, David (55.6) 14.1 / .3027
Diebler, Jon (60.3) 12.5 / .2073
Lauderdale, Dallas (42.0) 13.4 / .3193
Hill, PJ (15.2) 4.6 / .3008
Simmons, Jeremie (16.8) 1.8 / .1053
Madsen, Kyle (19.9) 3.4 / .1698
Sarikopoulis, Zizis (3.8) 0.5 / .1301
Kecman, Nikola (3.8) 1.1 / .2827

Penn State (3-15)
Battle, Talor (58.2) 24.1 / .4145
Jackson, David (49.4) 15.2 / .3072
Babb, Chris (51.2) 14.9 / .2901
Brooks, Jeff (34.4) 12.4 /.3601
Jones, Andrew (38.2) 7.6 /.1992
Edwards, Bill (22.9) 4.7 / .2059
Frazier, Tim (23.6) 6.3 / .2673
Woodyard, Cameron (11.2) 1.9 / .1716
Ott, Andrew (17.0) 4.0 / .2508
Highberger, Adam (6.1) 0 / 0
Borovnjak, Sasa (8.5) 1.2 / .1422

Purdue (14-4)
Hummel, Robbie (51.9) 27.3 / .5262
Moore, E'Twuann (52.9) 20.6 / .3891
Johnson, JaJuan (54.9) 20.6 / .3742
Kramer, Chris (47.8) 13.6 / .2846
Grant, Keaton (36.4) 10.2 / .2805
Barlow, Kelsey (24.2) 6.8 / .2815
Smith, Ryne (13.9) 0.2 / .0615
Wohlford, Mark (6.1) 1.4 / .2221
Byrd, DJ (7.3) 0 / 0
Bade, Patrick (7.6) 1.3 / .1708
Hart, John (21.7) 4.5 / .2059
Jackson, Lewis (28.7) 9.8 / .3426

Wisconsin (13-5)
Bohannon, Jason (54.4) 19.0 / .3496
Hughes, Trevon (47.7) 19.8 / .4161
Taylor, Jordan (46.2) 18.6 / .4026
Leuer, Jon (38.2) 18.2 / .4765
Nankivil, Keaton (39.5) 15.9 / .4045
Jarmusz, Tim (32.3) 5.8 / .1795
Evans, Ryan (15.9) 5.1 / .3166
Wilson, Rob (20.3) 5.4 / .2687
Bruesewitz, Mike (10.3) 3.3 / .3256
Berggren, Jared (3.1) 0.6 / .1918

Median HPPS
Median HPPG