Big Ten 2008 conference-only efficiency and possession-based efficiency stats
The full report is here and the 2007 season Big Ten ratings and explanations are here, but essentially this is my way of home-cooking the box scores to understand how valuable each player is to their team by measuring their effectiveness in scoring (points, FG%, FT%), passing (assists), holding onto the ball (def. rebounds, turnovers), and getting stops (steals, blocked shots) & extra possessions (offensive rebounds). I measure it in two categories: per-game production and per-possession production. If you look the per-possession or hpps rating at this way, this last season Wisconsin reserve Greg Stiemsma was about 54% likely on any given possession to help his team out in terms of getting a possession or a score, which was tops in the conference. However, Iowa starter Jake Kelly was at the opposite end of the spectrum, at about 17%. However, since Kelly played a lot more possessions than Stiemsma, their per-game productivity wasn't vastly dissimilar (6.9 for Kelly vs. 8.3 for Stiemsma). It's certainly not infallible as players at different position do so many different things, that's it hard to put them all on one metric. But I think this is helpful tool, as long as it is combined with some common sense.
2008 Per-Game (hppg) mean: 9.3
2008 Per-Possession (hpps) mean: .2826
2008 Per-Game (hppg) median: 8.2
2008 Per-Possession (hpps) median: .2831
Top Ten Performers per game:
1. DJ White, Indiana (28.4)
2. Rob Hummel, Purdue (24.2)
3. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (23.7)
4. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue (19.9)
5. Jamarcus Ellis, Indiana (19.8)
6. Goran Suton, Michigan State (19.8)
7. Demetri McCamey, Illinois (19.1)
8. Ekpe Udoh, Michigan (18.9)
9. Eric Gordon, Indiana (18.8)
10. Michael Flowers, Wisconsin (18.2)
*Special mention to Geary Claxton, Penn State who had been averaging 26.6 in the three games before going down with a career-ending injury in the fourth conference game.
Top Ten Performers Per Possession (min. 10 poss/per game):
1. Greg Stiemsma, Wisconsin (.5388)
2. Rob Hummel, Purdue (.5053)
3. DJ White, Indiana (.4955)
4. Goran Suton, Michigan State (.4506)
5. Brian Butch, Wisconsin (.4502)
6. Ekpe Udoh, Michigan (.4165)
7. Cyrus Tate, Iowa (.4043)
8. Kosta Koufos, Ohio State (.4041)
9. Demetri McCamey, Illinois (.3979)
10. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (.3957)
Top Five Centers
1. DJ White, Indiana
2. Goran Suton, Michigan State
3. Ekpe Udoh, Michigan
4. Kosta Koufos, Ohio State
5. Brian Butch, Wisconsin
Top Five Power Forwards
1. Rob Hummel, Purdue
2. Kevin Coble, Northwestern
3. Jamelle Cornley, Penn State
4. Cyrus Tate, Iowa
5. Othello Hunter, Ohio State
Top Five Small Forwards
1. Jamarcus Ellis, Indiana
2. Raymar Morgan, Michigan State
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisconsin
4. Damian Johnson, Minnesota
5. Manny Harris, Michigan
Top Five Scoring Guards
1. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue
2. Demetri McCamey, Illinois
3. Eric Gordon, Indiana
4. Michael Flowers, Wisconsin
5. Drew Nietzel, Michigan State
Top Five Point Guards
1. Jamar Butler, Ohio State
2. Tony Freeman, Iowa
3. Chris Kramer, Purdue
4. Lawrence Westbrook, Minnesota
5. Michael Thompson, Northwestern
Top Ten Freshmen:
1. Rob Hummel, Purdue
2. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue
3. Demetri McCamey, Illinois
4. Eric Gordon, Indiana
5. Kosta Koufos, Ohio State
6. Al Nolen, Minnesota
7. Evan Turner, Ohio State
8. Kalin Lucas, Michigan State
9. Manny Harris, Michigan
10. Michael Thompson, Northwestern
Top Ten players to look out for in 2009!
1. Rob Hummel, Purdue
2. Goran Suton, Michigan State
3. Demetri McCamey, Illinois
4. Kevin Coble, Northwestern
5. Cyrus Tate, Iowa
6. Raymar Morgan, Michigan State
7. Damian Johnson, Minnesota
8. E'Twaun Moore, Purdue
9. Lawrence Westbrook, Minnesota
10. Zack Gibson, Michigan
Friday, May 9, 2008
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
Ratings for Conference Halfway point
Conference games only, through Feb. 7th
The full report is here. Last year's ratings and explanations are here. The Indiana & Illinois double-OT has been taken into account in calculations of both hppg and hpps.
Size:
121 players total, 104 are currently active and see significant possessions per game.
Hppg median: 8.2
Hppg mean: 9.3
Hpps median: .2906
Hpps mean: .2747
Top Ten per-game effective production performers*.
1. Jamar Butler, OSU, 29.7
2. DJ White, Ind., 28.4
3. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., 24.7
4. Robbie Hummel, Pur., 21.8
5. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., 20.9
6. Goran Suton, MSU, 20.5
7. Drew Nietzel, MSU, 20.4
8. Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisc., 20.3
9. Jamelle Cornley, PSU, 19.5
10. Michael "Juice" Thompson, NU, 19.2
10. Kevin Coble, NU, 19.2
10. Eric Gordon, Ind., 19.2
*{Geary Claxton had a 26.7 hppg rating through 3 games before his season-ending injury}
Top Ten per-game effective production performers.
1. Robbie Hummel, Pur., .5346
2. Eric Wallace, OSU, .5239
3. Jamar Butler, OSU, .5048
4. Greg Stiemsma, Wisc., .4859
5. DJ White, Ind., .4845
6. Marcus Green, Pur., .4701
7. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., .4621
8. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., .4545
9. Brian Butch, Wis., .4501
10. Goran Suton, MSU, .4399
Top Ten Freshmen
1. Robbie Hummel, Pur., 21.8/.5346
2. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., 20.9/.4621
3. Eric Gordon, Ind., 19.2/.3333
4. Michael "Juice" Thompson 19.2/.3131
5. Kosta Koufas, OSU, 15.9/.3773
6. Demetri McCamey, Ill., 15.7/.3298
7. Al Nolen, Minn., 12.1/.3579
8. Manny Harris, Mich., 16.9/.3057
9. Kalin Lucas, MSU, 12.2/.3008
10. Evan Turner, OSU, 12/.2646
10. Talor Battle, PSU, 13.5/.2425
11 guys who should get more PT
1. Illinois
Jeffrey Jordan (.3644) should probably get a longer look. Who would've thought I'd be advocating for a Jordan to get more PT in the state of Illinois?
2. Indiana
Brandon McGee (.4946) hasn't played any meaningful minutes, but his skills have been on display in the garbage time he gets.
3. Iowa
Jeff Peterson has demonstrated some increased ability in the backcourt, and his hpps ratings isn't great (.2227), but it's far better than starter Jake Kelly's (.0417).
4. Michigan
The best marks are from their centers, but I'd like to see CJ Lee (.2789) get more time than Kelvin Grady (.1921) or David Merritt (.2202).
5. Michigan State
After the loss to smaller, faster PU, maybe Izzo will look at going small & putting Durrell Summers (.3092) on the floor & giving Kalin Lucas (.3008) more freedom.
6. Minnesota
The numbers say Jamal Abu-Shamala (.3946) should get more time. I'm unsure if his numbers will continue to look good after playing some teams not named Northwestern.
7. Northwestern
Jeremy Nash leads the team in per-possession effectiveness (.3927) and is starting to get some minutes. Northwestern needs this kid on the floor even more.
8. Ohio State
I'll repeat this from the last report: "Players were raving about Eric Wallace's (.5239) talent and ability in the pre-season, so I'm sort of wondering why he doesn't get more time on the floor? He's done pretty decent in garbage time."
9. Penn State
Hmm, nothing really jumps out here, except a lot of low numbers. DeChellis should probably play the freshmen as much as possible and try to build for next season. Schyler King still looks better than most options.
10. Purdue
Marcus Green is no longer the most effective player for the team (.4701 hpps), but you've already seen his name as the 6th-best in the conference. But what am *I* going to be telling Matt Painter?
11. Wisconsin
Repeat from the last report: "Greg Stiemsma (.4859) was one of the Big Ten's best bench performers in the hpps category last season, and continues to be this season."
The full report is here. Last year's ratings and explanations are here. The Indiana & Illinois double-OT has been taken into account in calculations of both hppg and hpps.
Size:
121 players total, 104 are currently active and see significant possessions per game.
Hppg median: 8.2
Hppg mean: 9.3
Hpps median: .2906
Hpps mean: .2747
Top Ten per-game effective production performers*.
1. Jamar Butler, OSU, 29.7
2. DJ White, Ind., 28.4
3. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., 24.7
4. Robbie Hummel, Pur., 21.8
5. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., 20.9
6. Goran Suton, MSU, 20.5
7. Drew Nietzel, MSU, 20.4
8. Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisc., 20.3
9. Jamelle Cornley, PSU, 19.5
10. Michael "Juice" Thompson, NU, 19.2
10. Kevin Coble, NU, 19.2
10. Eric Gordon, Ind., 19.2
*{Geary Claxton had a 26.7 hppg rating through 3 games before his season-ending injury}
Top Ten per-game effective production performers.
1. Robbie Hummel, Pur., .5346
2. Eric Wallace, OSU, .5239
3. Jamar Butler, OSU, .5048
4. Greg Stiemsma, Wisc., .4859
5. DJ White, Ind., .4845
6. Marcus Green, Pur., .4701
7. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., .4621
8. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., .4545
9. Brian Butch, Wis., .4501
10. Goran Suton, MSU, .4399
Top Ten Freshmen
1. Robbie Hummel, Pur., 21.8/.5346
2. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., 20.9/.4621
3. Eric Gordon, Ind., 19.2/.3333
4. Michael "Juice" Thompson 19.2/.3131
5. Kosta Koufas, OSU, 15.9/.3773
6. Demetri McCamey, Ill., 15.7/.3298
7. Al Nolen, Minn., 12.1/.3579
8. Manny Harris, Mich., 16.9/.3057
9. Kalin Lucas, MSU, 12.2/.3008
10. Evan Turner, OSU, 12/.2646
10. Talor Battle, PSU, 13.5/.2425
11 guys who should get more PT
1. Illinois
Jeffrey Jordan (.3644) should probably get a longer look. Who would've thought I'd be advocating for a Jordan to get more PT in the state of Illinois?
2. Indiana
Brandon McGee (.4946) hasn't played any meaningful minutes, but his skills have been on display in the garbage time he gets.
3. Iowa
Jeff Peterson has demonstrated some increased ability in the backcourt, and his hpps ratings isn't great (.2227), but it's far better than starter Jake Kelly's (.0417).
4. Michigan
The best marks are from their centers, but I'd like to see CJ Lee (.2789) get more time than Kelvin Grady (.1921) or David Merritt (.2202).
5. Michigan State
After the loss to smaller, faster PU, maybe Izzo will look at going small & putting Durrell Summers (.3092) on the floor & giving Kalin Lucas (.3008) more freedom.
6. Minnesota
The numbers say Jamal Abu-Shamala (.3946) should get more time. I'm unsure if his numbers will continue to look good after playing some teams not named Northwestern.
7. Northwestern
Jeremy Nash leads the team in per-possession effectiveness (.3927) and is starting to get some minutes. Northwestern needs this kid on the floor even more.
8. Ohio State
I'll repeat this from the last report: "Players were raving about Eric Wallace's (.5239) talent and ability in the pre-season, so I'm sort of wondering why he doesn't get more time on the floor? He's done pretty decent in garbage time."
9. Penn State
Hmm, nothing really jumps out here, except a lot of low numbers. DeChellis should probably play the freshmen as much as possible and try to build for next season. Schyler King still looks better than most options.
10. Purdue
Marcus Green is no longer the most effective player for the team (.4701 hpps), but you've already seen his name as the 6th-best in the conference. But what am *I* going to be telling Matt Painter?
11. Wisconsin
Repeat from the last report: "Greg Stiemsma (.4859) was one of the Big Ten's best bench performers in the hpps category last season, and continues to be this season."
Monday, January 21, 2008
Big Ten Games through 1/18/08
I just published the latest HFB ratings, it's all viewable here. The sample size (4-5 games) is really small, so this won't tell us a lot. Here's last year's ratings and explanations.
Size: 122 players total, 107 with significant possessions.
Hppg median: 7.5
Hppg mean: 9.9
Hpps median: .2828
Hpps mean: .2758
Top Ten per-game effective production performers.
1. Jamar Butler, OSU, 32.8
2. DJ White, Ind., 29.8
3. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., 24.8
4. Jamelle Cornley, PSU, 24.1
5. Kevin Coble, NU, 23.7
6. Dan Coleman, Minn., 21.8
7. Michael "Juice" Thompson, NU, 21.5
8. Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisc., 20.0
9. Drew Nietzel, MSU, 20.0
10. Al Nolen, Minn., 19.8
*{Geary Claxton had a 26.7 hppg rating through 3 games before his season-ending injury}
Top Ten per-game effective production performers.
1. Kurt Looby, Iowa, .6089
2. Jamar Butler, OSU, .5576
3. DJ White, Ind., .5229
4. Brandon Hassell, PSU, .5173
5. Greg Stiemsma, Wisc., .5133
6. Marcus Green, Pur. .4865
7. Al Nolen, Minn., .4667
8. Brian Butch, Wisc., .4619
9. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., .4512
10. Dan Coleman, Minn., .4492
Top Ten Freshmen
1. Michael "Juice" Thompson 21.5/.3359
2. Al Nolen, Minn., 19.8/.4667
3. Manny Harris, Mich., 18.8/.3382
4. Robbie Hummel, Pur., 18.3/.3789
5. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., 18.2/.3499
6. Demetri McCamey, Ill., 18.1/.3929
7. Kosta Koufas, OSU, 16.3/.3045
8. Kalin Lucas, MSU, 12.1/.2934
9. Talor Battle, PSU, 12.1/.2418
10. Eric Gordon, Ind., 11.8/.2093
11 guys who should get more PT
1. Illinois
Calvin Brock's already a starter, but Mike Tisdale looks best off the bench.
2. Indiana
DeAndre Thomas' .4015 hpps rating should keep Hoosiers fans from despairing in the event of DJ White getting into foul trouble.
3. Iowa
Kurt Looby leads the league with his .6089 hpps mark. But the Hawkeyes need guards.
4. Michigan
Um, anyone should be getting more PT than Ron Coleman, whose .0823 hpps rating is only higher than Hawkeye Jake Kelly's 0.0157 among starters. Maybe CJ Lee?
5. Michigan State
Durrell Summers has great production for the limited time he's on the floor. You don't want to take minutes away from Morgan or Nietzel, but find this kid a spot.
6. Minnesota
I would say Kevin Payton should play more, but I know Tubby's got him on the bench due to his turnovers. Overall, I would put the ball into McKenzie's hands less, tho.
7. Northwestern
Uh, this is pretty sad, but Kevin Coble is the obvious choice. But seriously, I say Mike Capocci (.4274) should probably take Jeff Ryan's spot. Also, Jeremy Nash and Ivan Peljusic could probably help out a little more, too.
8. Ohio State
Players were raving about Eric Wallace's talent and ability in the pre-season, so I'm sort of wondering why he doesn't get more time on the floor? He's done pretty decent in garbage time.
9. Penn State
Brandon Hassell is a guy who puts up decent numbers, but like Marco Killingsworth, the stats just don't reflect his lousy interior defense. Maybe DeChellis should give Schyler King a longer look, who played pretty well in one short stint.
10. Purdue
Marcus Green is technically a starter, but he's also far and away the most effective player (.4865 hpps) the Boilers have right now. Let the kid play!
11. Wisconsin
Greg Stiemsma was one of the Big Ten's best bench performers in the hpps category last season, and continues to be this season.
Size: 122 players total, 107 with significant possessions.
Hppg median: 7.5
Hppg mean: 9.9
Hpps median: .2828
Hpps mean: .2758
Top Ten per-game effective production performers.
1. Jamar Butler, OSU, 32.8
2. DJ White, Ind., 29.8
3. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., 24.8
4. Jamelle Cornley, PSU, 24.1
5. Kevin Coble, NU, 23.7
6. Dan Coleman, Minn., 21.8
7. Michael "Juice" Thompson, NU, 21.5
8. Joe Krabbenhoft, Wisc., 20.0
9. Drew Nietzel, MSU, 20.0
10. Al Nolen, Minn., 19.8
*{Geary Claxton had a 26.7 hppg rating through 3 games before his season-ending injury}
Top Ten per-game effective production performers.
1. Kurt Looby, Iowa, .6089
2. Jamar Butler, OSU, .5576
3. DJ White, Ind., .5229
4. Brandon Hassell, PSU, .5173
5. Greg Stiemsma, Wisc., .5133
6. Marcus Green, Pur. .4865
7. Al Nolen, Minn., .4667
8. Brian Butch, Wisc., .4619
9. Jamarcus Ellis, Ind., .4512
10. Dan Coleman, Minn., .4492
Top Ten Freshmen
1. Michael "Juice" Thompson 21.5/.3359
2. Al Nolen, Minn., 19.8/.4667
3. Manny Harris, Mich., 18.8/.3382
4. Robbie Hummel, Pur., 18.3/.3789
5. E'Twuan Moore, Pur., 18.2/.3499
6. Demetri McCamey, Ill., 18.1/.3929
7. Kosta Koufas, OSU, 16.3/.3045
8. Kalin Lucas, MSU, 12.1/.2934
9. Talor Battle, PSU, 12.1/.2418
10. Eric Gordon, Ind., 11.8/.2093
11 guys who should get more PT
1. Illinois
Calvin Brock's already a starter, but Mike Tisdale looks best off the bench.
2. Indiana
DeAndre Thomas' .4015 hpps rating should keep Hoosiers fans from despairing in the event of DJ White getting into foul trouble.
3. Iowa
Kurt Looby leads the league with his .6089 hpps mark. But the Hawkeyes need guards.
4. Michigan
Um, anyone should be getting more PT than Ron Coleman, whose .0823 hpps rating is only higher than Hawkeye Jake Kelly's 0.0157 among starters. Maybe CJ Lee?
5. Michigan State
Durrell Summers has great production for the limited time he's on the floor. You don't want to take minutes away from Morgan or Nietzel, but find this kid a spot.
6. Minnesota
I would say Kevin Payton should play more, but I know Tubby's got him on the bench due to his turnovers. Overall, I would put the ball into McKenzie's hands less, tho.
7. Northwestern
Uh, this is pretty sad, but Kevin Coble is the obvious choice. But seriously, I say Mike Capocci (.4274) should probably take Jeff Ryan's spot. Also, Jeremy Nash and Ivan Peljusic could probably help out a little more, too.
8. Ohio State
Players were raving about Eric Wallace's talent and ability in the pre-season, so I'm sort of wondering why he doesn't get more time on the floor? He's done pretty decent in garbage time.
9. Penn State
Brandon Hassell is a guy who puts up decent numbers, but like Marco Killingsworth, the stats just don't reflect his lousy interior defense. Maybe DeChellis should give Schyler King a longer look, who played pretty well in one short stint.
10. Purdue
Marcus Green is technically a starter, but he's also far and away the most effective player (.4865 hpps) the Boilers have right now. Let the kid play!
11. Wisconsin
Greg Stiemsma was one of the Big Ten's best bench performers in the hpps category last season, and continues to be this season.
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