Quick update on how the Big Ten players are faring in terms of per-game and per-possession efficiency. The what and why can be found here. Frankly, it's a good year overall for the conference.
All the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt -or rather, a shaker- there's no strength of schedule consideration here. The in-conference efficiency numbers are always much more reliable. However, there's some interesting stuff here. The overall pre-conference mean and median per-possession averages are the highest they've been in the three years I've been tracking them, and Evan Turner & Manny Harris are turning in off-the-charts amazing performances. Mike Conley .5859 (per-possession)/48.1 (possessions per game)/28.1 (effective production per game) was the previous record-holder for pre-conference performance, and Harris & Turner have him beat by a mile. And the insane thing is that Turner is at another level entirely above Harris, at least before he got hurt. Wow.
The full report is here, but here's the top tens.
Top Ten Per-Possession Performers
1. Evan Turner, OSU, .7219/54.6/39.4
2. Manny Harris, Mich., .6414/57.3/36.5
3. Draymond Green, MSU, .5727/43.1/24.7
4. Jon Leuer, Wis., .5576/43.8/24.4
5. Damian Johnson, Minn., .5314/46.1/24.5
6. Zack Gibson, Mich., .5236/19.7/10.3
7. Johnson, JaJuan, Pur., .5087/44.1/22.4
8. Delvon Roe, MSU, .5059/39.2/19.9
9. Mike Tisdale, UIUC, .5038/40.9/20.6
10. Devron Bostick, Minn., .4985/12.7/6.3
Top 10 Per-Game
1. Evan Turner
2. Manny Harris
3. Draymond Green
4. Damian Johnson
5. Jon Leuer
6. Robbie Hummel, Pur., .4843/48.6/23.5
7. Maurice Creek, Ind., .4702/48.4/22.7
8. Jeremy Nash, NU, .4038/56.2/22.7
9. JaJuan Johnson
10. Kalin Lucas, MSU, ..4296/52.1/22.4
Top 10 freshmen
1. Tyler Griffey, UIUC, .4925/15.2/7.5
2. Derrick Nix, MSU, .4726/15/7.1
3. Maurice Creek, Ind., .4702/48.4/22.7
4. Drew Crawford, NU, .4614/36.7/16.9
5. Alex Marcotullio, NU, .4561/25.4/11.6
6. Rodney Williams, Minn., .4493/25.1/11.3
7. Derek Elston, Ind., .3937/31.6/12.4
8. Brennan Cougill, Iowa, .3628/32.4/11.8
9. Christian Watford, Ind., .3474/43/14.9
10. Kelsey Barlow, Pur., .3447/28/9.6
Overall-
Mean HPPS
.3474
Median HPPS
.3294
Mean HPPG
11.3
Median HPPG
11.3
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Exhibition compilation for IU players
Starters:
Watford: 8/18, 16/17ft, 8/15rb, 2a/1to, 3s, 41min, 32pts. (+43.5/21.8hppg)
Creek: 6/11 (2/7), 7/8ft, 3/10rb, 3a/5to, 1b, 3s, 40min, 21pts (+44/22hppg)
Pritchard: 6/12, 4/10ft, 6/13rb, 2a/3to, 2b, 4s, 42min, 16pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Jones: 8/16, 9/12ft, 0/4rb, 11a/10to, 2b, 3s, 54min, 25pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Rivers: 12/20, 3/4ft, 0/7rb, 8a/3to, 2b, 2s, 46min, 27pts (+47.5/23.8hppg)
Bench:
Elston: 8/13, 2/2ft, 3/15rb, 1a/3to, 1b, 1s, 33min, 18pts (+31.5/15.8hppg)
Roth: 5/9 (3/6), 1/2rb, 21min, 13pts (+12/6hppg)
Capobianco: 1/6 (0/1), 2/2ft, 3/11rb, 1a/2to, 1s, 22min, 4pts (+13.5/6.8hppg)
Hulls: 6/8 (3/4), 6/6ft, 1/3rb, 4a/5to, 3s, 38min, 21pts (+29/14.5hppg)
Jobe: 0/1, 2/4rb, 1to, 1b, 13min, 0 pts (+5/2.5hppg)
Moore: 1/3 (1/2), 0/2ft, 0/1rb, 2a/1to, 2s, 12min, 3pts (+8/4hhpg)
? (1 game)
Dumes: 0/2 (0/2), 1/2ft, 1/1rb, 2a, 9min, 1pt (+5.5)
Muniru: 2/3, 3/4ft, 1/2rb, 1to, 3b, 8min, 7pts (+13.5)
Walk-ons:
Gambles: 1/3, 1/4ft, 0/1rb, 3min, 3pts (+0.5)
Finkelmeier: 0/2ft, 1s, 5min, 0 pts (0)
Barnett: 0/1, 3min, 0 pts (-1)
Watford: 8/18, 16/17ft, 8/15rb, 2a/1to, 3s, 41min, 32pts. (+43.5/21.8hppg)
Creek: 6/11 (2/7), 7/8ft, 3/10rb, 3a/5to, 1b, 3s, 40min, 21pts (+44/22hppg)
Pritchard: 6/12, 4/10ft, 6/13rb, 2a/3to, 2b, 4s, 42min, 16pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Jones: 8/16, 9/12ft, 0/4rb, 11a/10to, 2b, 3s, 54min, 25pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Rivers: 12/20, 3/4ft, 0/7rb, 8a/3to, 2b, 2s, 46min, 27pts (+47.5/23.8hppg)
Bench:
Elston: 8/13, 2/2ft, 3/15rb, 1a/3to, 1b, 1s, 33min, 18pts (+31.5/15.8hppg)
Roth: 5/9 (3/6), 1/2rb, 21min, 13pts (+12/6hppg)
Capobianco: 1/6 (0/1), 2/2ft, 3/11rb, 1a/2to, 1s, 22min, 4pts (+13.5/6.8hppg)
Hulls: 6/8 (3/4), 6/6ft, 1/3rb, 4a/5to, 3s, 38min, 21pts (+29/14.5hppg)
Jobe: 0/1, 2/4rb, 1to, 1b, 13min, 0 pts (+5/2.5hppg)
Moore: 1/3 (1/2), 0/2ft, 0/1rb, 2a/1to, 2s, 12min, 3pts (+8/4hhpg)
? (1 game)
Dumes: 0/2 (0/2), 1/2ft, 1/1rb, 2a, 9min, 1pt (+5.5)
Muniru: 2/3, 3/4ft, 1/2rb, 1to, 3b, 8min, 7pts (+13.5)
Walk-ons:
Gambles: 1/3, 1/4ft, 0/1rb, 3min, 3pts (+0.5)
Finkelmeier: 0/2ft, 1s, 5min, 0 pts (0)
Barnett: 0/1, 3min, 0 pts (-1)
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Final Report 2009: Big Ten efficiency ratings
It's time take a look back at the season that was, and how individual players fared statistically in their efficient production during the Big Ten 2009 conference season.
What is this? And for the love of Pete, why?
The full report can be found here:
Top Ten Per-Game Producers
Evan Turner (Ohio State) 25.1
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) 22.3
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) 21.4
Manny Harris (Michigan) 21.3
Talor Battle (Penn State) 20.9
Goran Suton (Michigan State) 20.8
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) 19.8
Mike Davis (Illinois) 19.8
Kevin Coble (Northwestern) 19.7
Chester Frazier (Illinois) 19.1
Top Ten Per-Possession Producers
Mike Capocci (Northwestern) .5051
Paul Carter (Minnesota) .4878
Goran Suton (Michigan State) .4804
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) .4796
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) .4691
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) .4691
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) .4532
Evan Turner (Ohio State) .4361
Manny Harris (Michigan) .4288
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) .4206
The Freshmen 15
1st team:
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) 15.4/.4532
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) 14.0/.4649
Matt Gatens (Iowa) 15.2/.2978
William Buford (Ohio State) 14.9/.2984
Verdell Jones (Indiana) 15.9/.3153
2nd team:
Luka Mirkovic (Northwestern) 12.8/.4115
Draymond Green (Michigan State) 6.2/.4066
Lewis Jackson (Purdue) 12.1/.2971
John Shurna (Northwestern) 7.6/.2995
Laval Lucas-Perry (Michigan) 7.8/.2546
3rd team:
Ralph Sampson (Minnesota) 12.4/.3602
Zack Novak (Michigan) 11.5/.2289
Tom Pritchard (Indiana) 10.8/.2389
Colton Iverson (Minnesota) 8.0/2977
Chris Babb (Penn State) 4.6/.2729
And if you made it this far, just check the previous entry for the school-by-school rundowns.
What is this? And for the love of Pete, why?
The full report can be found here:
Top Ten Per-Game Producers
Evan Turner (Ohio State) 25.1
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) 22.3
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) 21.4
Manny Harris (Michigan) 21.3
Talor Battle (Penn State) 20.9
Goran Suton (Michigan State) 20.8
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) 19.8
Mike Davis (Illinois) 19.8
Kevin Coble (Northwestern) 19.7
Chester Frazier (Illinois) 19.1
Top Ten Per-Possession Producers
Mike Capocci (Northwestern) .5051
Paul Carter (Minnesota) .4878
Goran Suton (Michigan State) .4804
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) .4796
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) .4691
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) .4691
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) .4532
Evan Turner (Ohio State) .4361
Manny Harris (Michigan) .4288
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) .4206
The Freshmen 15
1st team:
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) 15.4/.4532
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) 14.0/.4649
Matt Gatens (Iowa) 15.2/.2978
William Buford (Ohio State) 14.9/.2984
Verdell Jones (Indiana) 15.9/.3153
2nd team:
Luka Mirkovic (Northwestern) 12.8/.4115
Draymond Green (Michigan State) 6.2/.4066
Lewis Jackson (Purdue) 12.1/.2971
John Shurna (Northwestern) 7.6/.2995
Laval Lucas-Perry (Michigan) 7.8/.2546
3rd team:
Ralph Sampson (Minnesota) 12.4/.3602
Zack Novak (Michigan) 11.5/.2289
Tom Pritchard (Indiana) 10.8/.2389
Colton Iverson (Minnesota) 8.0/2977
Chris Babb (Penn State) 4.6/.2729
And if you made it this far, just check the previous entry for the school-by-school rundowns.
2009 individual school-by-school notes:
Illinois
Standout(s): The Illini did pretty good in the individual per-game production, placing 3 in the top 11 (McCamey, Frazier, & Davis), but were less solid on a per-possession basis, with only Mike Davis coming in at #11 overall. The heavy use Weber puts on his players dropped the per-possession stats, but this was a solid group, in terms of efficient production.
Weak link(s): Alex Legion gets this one in a walk. There were minutes available on the wing, and per-possession Legion was highly ineffective (.1524), ranking 109th out of 118. Jeff Jordan wasn't great either (.2385) but you can't hold a walk-on's feet to the fire.
Put me in! Off the bench, it seemed like Calvin Brock (.3462) should've gotten more time at the wing, especially considering how many minutes Weber had his starters playing.
Next Year Notes: Dominique Keller might get more minutes, but of the returnees really it's Mike Tisdale (.3481) that should be playing more. Demetri McCamey had himself a fine year on the wing, but next year might not be as kind to his stats as he'll be both point guard and the go-to guy. As Dee Brown will tell him, that can be tough on you.
Indiana
Standout(s): Exactly two IU players were above-average in this terrible season. Former walk-on Kyle Taber (.3092) and the extremely late pick-up freshman Verdell Jones (.3153) both did well per-possesion, but that was pretty much it. On the whole, this was an extremely inefficient team, and it showed up in the win-loss results.
Weak link(s): Scoring guard: when Dumes wasn't getting hurt or suspended for thowing elbows, he could play efficiently due his stellar three-point shooting. But his inefficiency in pre-conference play suggests that IU fans shouldn't expect a much better version of him to show up next season. Matt Roth's efficiency is probably artificially low (.1804) due to the team's need for him to jack tough threes at the end of games, but really, he did little else besides the occasional but surprising blocked shot. Reserve center Tijan Jobe, despite his height and muscle, was likely the worst player in the conference this season (.0594).
Put me in! Um, nothing really jumps out here. Taber and Jones got as many minutes as they could handle, and noone else really deserved any more than they got. I would've liked to see Nick Williams featured a little more in the offense, but he's gone now, so it's all moot anyway.
Next Year Notes: Crean did what he needed, bring in a top-flight class to start the rebuilding right away. Despite his low conference rating (.2389) Tom Pritchard is actually a pretty decent piece for the future (non-conference he had a .4181 rating), and I think he got victimized (and "fairly" if that's possible) by the refs in the Big Ten for being a physical frosh. Look for his ratings to markedly improve next season. Outside of him and Jones, and maybe Dumes, I don't think we'll see much PT for the other returning players.
Iowa
Standout(s): The wings were the strength of this team, namely Jake Kelly (15.1/.3114) and Matt Gatens (15.2/.2978). Jeff Peterson (16.3/.3182) & David Palmer (9.4/.3151) were above average as well. But once Cyrus Tate (.3555) went down, so did Iowa's NIT hopes.
Weak link(s): The bench. Possible 2010 starters Devan Bawinkel (.1345) and Aaron Fuller (.1697) were awful, as was reserve center Andrew Brommer (.1697).
Put me in! This year's drama has to be the weirdest non-resolution of a coach-player clash I've seen in quite a while. Well, the Calhoun-Robinson thing at UConn last year was pretty wild too. But the curious case of Anthony Tucker had me scratching my head all year. Often effective (13.2/.3622, and oft-used: 36.3 poss.per game) in the pre-season, erratically and rarely used (15 poss./pg in 4 games, 4.3/.2831) in conference play, and now heavily-used again in the off-season, Tucker is nonetheless the best bet for Iowa at the three-spot in 2010.
Next Year Notes: With the unfortunate career-ending injury of Cyrus Tate, and the raft of refugees (Peterson, Kelly, Palmer, Davis) from Lickliter's program, 2009 has been a bad year for Hawkeye fans. Hopefully, Lickliter likes Tucker again next season, because the only other options for a second wing are Devan Bawinkel (perhaps the worst player getting the most minutes in the conference) and the untested and unheralded freshman, Eric May. Jarryd Cole may also struggle moving from the 4-spot to the 5 next season, which will probably affect his average efficiency adversely. And we probably shouldn't talk about the point guard sitch unless we have to. Ouch.
Michigan
Standout(s): Essentially, this was a two-man team. DeShawn Sims (19.8/.4206) and Manny Harris (21.3/.4288) accounted for about 43% of the team's entire production, but more notably, no else was even close in per-game or per-possession terms. Beilien knows how to maximize his best players.
Weak link(s): Actually, outside of the two stars, only reserves Zack Gibson, Kelvin Grady, and CJ Lee were in the average range. But with a plethora of freshmen guards, the lack of per-possession efficiency is not surprising.
Put me in! Zack Gibson again did pretty well with a .3471 rating despite very limited minutes, and CJ Lee could've probably used a few more minutes with his above-average .3131 rating. Last year I thought Gibson was ready for a leap forward, and at times he looked really good this year, but he also just seemed useless at others. Probably he's just an effective reserve.
Next Year Notes: Five starters plus Gibson return, and Beilien adds a fine recruiting class to replace the departed bench. I don't see a lot of PT for the frosh big men, Gibson or the redshirted 7-footer Ben Cronin, as the Michigan offense relies on the bigs being able to shoot from outside reliably and *pass the ball.* Novak, Lucas-Perry, and Douglass should all improve with a year under their belts, so the UM program should continue its recovery.
Michigan State
Standout(s): This was a year for the books for the Spartans. But to me, once again, it was Goran Suton for the Big Ten efficiency POY. Intangibly, you could tell a big difference between MSU with Suton and without him. And he was 6th in the per-game rankings (20.8) while also ranking third in per-possession performance overall (.4804), putting him in a very elite group of players who were elite in both (Turner, J. Johnson, Krabbenhoft, & Sims). But even more impressive is that he was still this elite on the Big 10's deepest and far-and-away best team. Delvon Roe & Draymond Green deserve mentions as promising talent (.4649 & .4066)
Weak link(s): The bench wings were a little weak, and perhaps it is a function of Izzo's offense, but Durrell Summers (.2391) & Chris Allen (.2199) just weren't effective per-possession. They need to find a way to improve over the summer, because they'll be seeing a lot more minutes next year.
Put me in! Izzo's pretty good at maximizing his potential, but I think the one guy who coud've gotten more minutes was Draymond Green. Unfortunately, Roe is even better per-possession, so unless there's a way to put them on the floor at the same time, their minutes aren't going to increase substantially anytime soon.
Next Year Notes: There's just a lot of great young talent here (I haven't even mentioned Kalin Lucas- 17.6/.3333), but the Spartans are going to miss Suton, Walton, and yes, even Marquise Gray & Idong Ibok next season. However, where things should absolutely improve is in the play of Raymar Morgan. Before the conference season began, he was playing at an all Big-Ten level (21.0/.4579). With his health suffering, he was a different player for much of the conference season. Despite the losses, which will hurt, this is title-threat.
Minnesota
Standout(s): Although Damian Johnson led UM in per-game contributions (and is the perhaps the conference exemplar for the need for a system that takes into account more than just offensive stats), the real surprise here is Paul Carter. Despite posting a slightly above-average per-game productivity due to receiving only bench minutes, his .4878 rating was second only to NU's Mike Capocci. In fact, Carter saw about four times the possessions that Capocci did, making him a reasonable candidate for most effective player, but Goran Suton still got nearly twice the possessions as Carter while on a much better team. Still, impressively done, Mr. Carter!
Weak link(s): Lawrence Westbrook's .2741 rating, while average for a shooting guard, still doesn't rate well for the leading scorer. And there's not much help off the bench as Blake Hoffarber seemingly took a big step back from last year's .2821 rating to this year's .1961.
Put me in! Obviously, Carter was the guy who needed more minutes -according to the stats. I didn't watch a lot of Minnesota games, but he always seemed to making contributions when I watched. Devron Bostick seemed like a disappointment during the year, but his per-possession rating (.3427) was actually pretty good.
Next Year Notes: With two good freshmen coming in, minutes start to become a question. One doesn't want Damian Johnson & Paul Carter to lose minutes, and yet you've got to find room for Royce White and Rodney Williams. And yet, with good young talent like Al Nolen and Ralph Sampson III already in place, it's a luxury to have this question. And really, if Westbrook becomes just a bit more efficient (less turnovers, better 2 FG%), Tubby's team should challenge for the conference crown.
Northwestern
Standout(s): Coach Carmody squeezes his good players for all they're worth, so while Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Craig Moore had good ratings, their efficiency probably was a little lower due to the heavy minutes. The surprise here was frosh center Luka Mirkovic, who led the team with his .4115 rating.
Weak link(s): Kyle Rowley is the "winner" here with his weak .2034. Which is tough, because he's a freshman with good size and strength. If he works hard, there's no way he won't be a strong contributor for NU in the coming years.
Put me in! Mike Capocci's league-leading .5051 rating suggests that the man needs some more possessions. If Jeff Ryan might shift back to more a guard role, they both can get more minutes next season (.3159). However, both played very few possessions, and neither were great per-possession last season.
Next Year Notes: This was actually a very deep team, as only the lightly-used Rowley, David Curletti, and Sterling Williams posted beow-average ratings. Craig Moore (17.6/.3276) will be missed, but Jeremy Nash was looking like he was ready to shoulder starting minutes anyway.
Ohio State
Standout(s): Evan Turner was huge in per-game production, at a league-leading 25.1. However, it seemed that Matta knew to maximize the use of a good player, so Turner's
per-possession was more on the level of very good, not great. BJ Mullens led the team in that area at .4532, so his contributions will be sorely missed.
Weak link(s): The bench was pretty weak, particularly if one includes "starter" Dallas Lauderdale, who saw less PT than Mullens in-conference. But even Lauderdale's .2019 rating was better than Walter Offutt's .1961 and Kyle Madsen's .1397. Ouch!
Put me in! Mullens was the only player who really stood out as needing more minutes. Of the starters, Jermaine Simmons could maybe use some more minutes, but even he was only average (.2809). I'd suggest Matta just needed more players.
Next Year Notes: Losing Mullens hurts, as transfers Zizi Sarkopoulos and Nicola Kecman are unlikely to be as effective in the post. But the return of David Lighty could help offset that by shoring up the perimeter defense.
Penn State
Standout(s): Obviously, Talor Battle (20.9/.3739) was the standout here. The main reason that his numbers were even that low was due to his triple role as point guard,
playmaker, and bailout man. I'd also like to highlight Stanley Pringle, who was only above average in per-possession (.3234) but was a workhorse (46.6 possessions/game) for PSU.
Weak link(s): Even though Jamelle Cornley had a below-average .2514 rating and still got crazy usage (54.1 poss./game), the role he played was invaluable for this team. The real weak spot was at the wing, where nominal starter Jeff Brooks had the worst rating in the conference of all starters (.1925), and the more-used Danny Morrissey wasn't much better at .1969. But worst of all was reserve DJ Jackson at .1487!
Put me in! Andrew Ott looked good in his reserve role with a .4019 rating, but again, this system favors low-usage reserve centers for some reason. Chris Babb's .2729 rating was on the low side of average, but that's still pretty good for a freshman guard.
Next Year Notes: Ott & Babb will probably get more possessions, with Babb likely to start. The incoming freshmen class has promise, but it seems a longshot that they'll step in and produce immediately, so short of Brooks and Jackson becoming suddenly effective, the Nittany Lions seem likely to fall back for a year.
Purdue
Standout(s): Robbie Hummel, even despite his injuries that led to a huge drop per-possession (from .5053 to .3626), was still the second-best on the team.
Without JaJuan Johnson's growth into a starring big man (22.3/.4693), Purdue may have had trouble making the NCAA tourney.
Weak link(s): Keaton Grant got heavy minutes and didn't do a lot with them. His .2241 was the worst of any player who got starter's minutes. Maybe itwas just the fact that both he & Moore seem to play better when Hummel is healthy, but one has to wonder whether last season's drastic improvement was an aberration?
Put me in! Marcus Green (.3201) continued to be one of the best 6th men in the conference. Ranking 39th overall as a wing player is no mean feat, and being such a solid option off the bench for two years proved his consistency.
Next Year Notes: Returning their top six players and adding a solid class of freshmen suggests a Big Ten championship awaits these Boilers. Losing a little experienced depth like Green, Calasan, and Riddell off the bench will hurt a little, and the regression of Moore & Grant is a very real concern, but really coach Painter's top worry is the health of Robbie Hummel. Johnson is the top returning center in the conference, but a healthy Hummel is the difference between an okay season and a championship.
Wisconsin
Standout(s): Joe Krabbenhoft (21.4/.4796) was the clear standout on this team, in terms of efficiency. During the year I actually thought that he should become a little less effective by leading and shooting a little more, but that wasn't his game. 3rd overall in per-game production and 4th in per-possession, he was runner-up to Goran Suton for POY in these stats.
Weak link(s): I didn't think too much of Jordan Taylor & Rob Wilson during the year, and they were below-average overall, but for freshmen guards they actually did fine in per-possession terms. But the real weak link was Tim Jarmusz, who came in at 89th. His .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year.
Put me in! Per-possession, Jon Leuer (.3888) and Keaton Nankivil (.3858) were both actually well above-average. Of course, Marcus Landry & Joe Krabbenhoft were even better, so they ate up most of the minutes at the four-spot. Overall, I think Bo Ryan's pretty good at playing his most effective players the most minutes.
Next Year Notes: Jarmusz's .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year. Nankivil & Leuer should do just fine with the extra minutes inside. But the loss of Krabbenhoft & Landry is going to hurt. Unless the redshirts (Evans & Berggren) can really contribute and Mike Bruesewitz is the second coming of Krabbenhoft, I have a hard time seeing the Badgers make the NCAA's next season.
Standout(s): The Illini did pretty good in the individual per-game production, placing 3 in the top 11 (McCamey, Frazier, & Davis), but were less solid on a per-possession basis, with only Mike Davis coming in at #11 overall. The heavy use Weber puts on his players dropped the per-possession stats, but this was a solid group, in terms of efficient production.
Weak link(s): Alex Legion gets this one in a walk. There were minutes available on the wing, and per-possession Legion was highly ineffective (.1524), ranking 109th out of 118. Jeff Jordan wasn't great either (.2385) but you can't hold a walk-on's feet to the fire.
Put me in! Off the bench, it seemed like Calvin Brock (.3462) should've gotten more time at the wing, especially considering how many minutes Weber had his starters playing.
Next Year Notes: Dominique Keller might get more minutes, but of the returnees really it's Mike Tisdale (.3481) that should be playing more. Demetri McCamey had himself a fine year on the wing, but next year might not be as kind to his stats as he'll be both point guard and the go-to guy. As Dee Brown will tell him, that can be tough on you.
Indiana
Standout(s): Exactly two IU players were above-average in this terrible season. Former walk-on Kyle Taber (.3092) and the extremely late pick-up freshman Verdell Jones (.3153) both did well per-possesion, but that was pretty much it. On the whole, this was an extremely inefficient team, and it showed up in the win-loss results.
Weak link(s): Scoring guard: when Dumes wasn't getting hurt or suspended for thowing elbows, he could play efficiently due his stellar three-point shooting. But his inefficiency in pre-conference play suggests that IU fans shouldn't expect a much better version of him to show up next season. Matt Roth's efficiency is probably artificially low (.1804) due to the team's need for him to jack tough threes at the end of games, but really, he did little else besides the occasional but surprising blocked shot. Reserve center Tijan Jobe, despite his height and muscle, was likely the worst player in the conference this season (.0594).
Put me in! Um, nothing really jumps out here. Taber and Jones got as many minutes as they could handle, and noone else really deserved any more than they got. I would've liked to see Nick Williams featured a little more in the offense, but he's gone now, so it's all moot anyway.
Next Year Notes: Crean did what he needed, bring in a top-flight class to start the rebuilding right away. Despite his low conference rating (.2389) Tom Pritchard is actually a pretty decent piece for the future (non-conference he had a .4181 rating), and I think he got victimized (and "fairly" if that's possible) by the refs in the Big Ten for being a physical frosh. Look for his ratings to markedly improve next season. Outside of him and Jones, and maybe Dumes, I don't think we'll see much PT for the other returning players.
Iowa
Standout(s): The wings were the strength of this team, namely Jake Kelly (15.1/.3114) and Matt Gatens (15.2/.2978). Jeff Peterson (16.3/.3182) & David Palmer (9.4/.3151) were above average as well. But once Cyrus Tate (.3555) went down, so did Iowa's NIT hopes.
Weak link(s): The bench. Possible 2010 starters Devan Bawinkel (.1345) and Aaron Fuller (.1697) were awful, as was reserve center Andrew Brommer (.1697).
Put me in! This year's drama has to be the weirdest non-resolution of a coach-player clash I've seen in quite a while. Well, the Calhoun-Robinson thing at UConn last year was pretty wild too. But the curious case of Anthony Tucker had me scratching my head all year. Often effective (13.2/.3622, and oft-used: 36.3 poss.per game) in the pre-season, erratically and rarely used (15 poss./pg in 4 games, 4.3/.2831) in conference play, and now heavily-used again in the off-season, Tucker is nonetheless the best bet for Iowa at the three-spot in 2010.
Next Year Notes: With the unfortunate career-ending injury of Cyrus Tate, and the raft of refugees (Peterson, Kelly, Palmer, Davis) from Lickliter's program, 2009 has been a bad year for Hawkeye fans. Hopefully, Lickliter likes Tucker again next season, because the only other options for a second wing are Devan Bawinkel (perhaps the worst player getting the most minutes in the conference) and the untested and unheralded freshman, Eric May. Jarryd Cole may also struggle moving from the 4-spot to the 5 next season, which will probably affect his average efficiency adversely. And we probably shouldn't talk about the point guard sitch unless we have to. Ouch.
Michigan
Standout(s): Essentially, this was a two-man team. DeShawn Sims (19.8/.4206) and Manny Harris (21.3/.4288) accounted for about 43% of the team's entire production, but more notably, no else was even close in per-game or per-possession terms. Beilien knows how to maximize his best players.
Weak link(s): Actually, outside of the two stars, only reserves Zack Gibson, Kelvin Grady, and CJ Lee were in the average range. But with a plethora of freshmen guards, the lack of per-possession efficiency is not surprising.
Put me in! Zack Gibson again did pretty well with a .3471 rating despite very limited minutes, and CJ Lee could've probably used a few more minutes with his above-average .3131 rating. Last year I thought Gibson was ready for a leap forward, and at times he looked really good this year, but he also just seemed useless at others. Probably he's just an effective reserve.
Next Year Notes: Five starters plus Gibson return, and Beilien adds a fine recruiting class to replace the departed bench. I don't see a lot of PT for the frosh big men, Gibson or the redshirted 7-footer Ben Cronin, as the Michigan offense relies on the bigs being able to shoot from outside reliably and *pass the ball.* Novak, Lucas-Perry, and Douglass should all improve with a year under their belts, so the UM program should continue its recovery.
Michigan State
Standout(s): This was a year for the books for the Spartans. But to me, once again, it was Goran Suton for the Big Ten efficiency POY. Intangibly, you could tell a big difference between MSU with Suton and without him. And he was 6th in the per-game rankings (20.8) while also ranking third in per-possession performance overall (.4804), putting him in a very elite group of players who were elite in both (Turner, J. Johnson, Krabbenhoft, & Sims). But even more impressive is that he was still this elite on the Big 10's deepest and far-and-away best team. Delvon Roe & Draymond Green deserve mentions as promising talent (.4649 & .4066)
Weak link(s): The bench wings were a little weak, and perhaps it is a function of Izzo's offense, but Durrell Summers (.2391) & Chris Allen (.2199) just weren't effective per-possession. They need to find a way to improve over the summer, because they'll be seeing a lot more minutes next year.
Put me in! Izzo's pretty good at maximizing his potential, but I think the one guy who coud've gotten more minutes was Draymond Green. Unfortunately, Roe is even better per-possession, so unless there's a way to put them on the floor at the same time, their minutes aren't going to increase substantially anytime soon.
Next Year Notes: There's just a lot of great young talent here (I haven't even mentioned Kalin Lucas- 17.6/.3333), but the Spartans are going to miss Suton, Walton, and yes, even Marquise Gray & Idong Ibok next season. However, where things should absolutely improve is in the play of Raymar Morgan. Before the conference season began, he was playing at an all Big-Ten level (21.0/.4579). With his health suffering, he was a different player for much of the conference season. Despite the losses, which will hurt, this is title-threat.
Minnesota
Standout(s): Although Damian Johnson led UM in per-game contributions (and is the perhaps the conference exemplar for the need for a system that takes into account more than just offensive stats), the real surprise here is Paul Carter. Despite posting a slightly above-average per-game productivity due to receiving only bench minutes, his .4878 rating was second only to NU's Mike Capocci. In fact, Carter saw about four times the possessions that Capocci did, making him a reasonable candidate for most effective player, but Goran Suton still got nearly twice the possessions as Carter while on a much better team. Still, impressively done, Mr. Carter!
Weak link(s): Lawrence Westbrook's .2741 rating, while average for a shooting guard, still doesn't rate well for the leading scorer. And there's not much help off the bench as Blake Hoffarber seemingly took a big step back from last year's .2821 rating to this year's .1961.
Put me in! Obviously, Carter was the guy who needed more minutes -according to the stats. I didn't watch a lot of Minnesota games, but he always seemed to making contributions when I watched. Devron Bostick seemed like a disappointment during the year, but his per-possession rating (.3427) was actually pretty good.
Next Year Notes: With two good freshmen coming in, minutes start to become a question. One doesn't want Damian Johnson & Paul Carter to lose minutes, and yet you've got to find room for Royce White and Rodney Williams. And yet, with good young talent like Al Nolen and Ralph Sampson III already in place, it's a luxury to have this question. And really, if Westbrook becomes just a bit more efficient (less turnovers, better 2 FG%), Tubby's team should challenge for the conference crown.
Northwestern
Standout(s): Coach Carmody squeezes his good players for all they're worth, so while Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Craig Moore had good ratings, their efficiency probably was a little lower due to the heavy minutes. The surprise here was frosh center Luka Mirkovic, who led the team with his .4115 rating.
Weak link(s): Kyle Rowley is the "winner" here with his weak .2034. Which is tough, because he's a freshman with good size and strength. If he works hard, there's no way he won't be a strong contributor for NU in the coming years.
Put me in! Mike Capocci's league-leading .5051 rating suggests that the man needs some more possessions. If Jeff Ryan might shift back to more a guard role, they both can get more minutes next season (.3159). However, both played very few possessions, and neither were great per-possession last season.
Next Year Notes: This was actually a very deep team, as only the lightly-used Rowley, David Curletti, and Sterling Williams posted beow-average ratings. Craig Moore (17.6/.3276) will be missed, but Jeremy Nash was looking like he was ready to shoulder starting minutes anyway.
Ohio State
Standout(s): Evan Turner was huge in per-game production, at a league-leading 25.1. However, it seemed that Matta knew to maximize the use of a good player, so Turner's
per-possession was more on the level of very good, not great. BJ Mullens led the team in that area at .4532, so his contributions will be sorely missed.
Weak link(s): The bench was pretty weak, particularly if one includes "starter" Dallas Lauderdale, who saw less PT than Mullens in-conference. But even Lauderdale's .2019 rating was better than Walter Offutt's .1961 and Kyle Madsen's .1397. Ouch!
Put me in! Mullens was the only player who really stood out as needing more minutes. Of the starters, Jermaine Simmons could maybe use some more minutes, but even he was only average (.2809). I'd suggest Matta just needed more players.
Next Year Notes: Losing Mullens hurts, as transfers Zizi Sarkopoulos and Nicola Kecman are unlikely to be as effective in the post. But the return of David Lighty could help offset that by shoring up the perimeter defense.
Penn State
Standout(s): Obviously, Talor Battle (20.9/.3739) was the standout here. The main reason that his numbers were even that low was due to his triple role as point guard,
playmaker, and bailout man. I'd also like to highlight Stanley Pringle, who was only above average in per-possession (.3234) but was a workhorse (46.6 possessions/game) for PSU.
Weak link(s): Even though Jamelle Cornley had a below-average .2514 rating and still got crazy usage (54.1 poss./game), the role he played was invaluable for this team. The real weak spot was at the wing, where nominal starter Jeff Brooks had the worst rating in the conference of all starters (.1925), and the more-used Danny Morrissey wasn't much better at .1969. But worst of all was reserve DJ Jackson at .1487!
Put me in! Andrew Ott looked good in his reserve role with a .4019 rating, but again, this system favors low-usage reserve centers for some reason. Chris Babb's .2729 rating was on the low side of average, but that's still pretty good for a freshman guard.
Next Year Notes: Ott & Babb will probably get more possessions, with Babb likely to start. The incoming freshmen class has promise, but it seems a longshot that they'll step in and produce immediately, so short of Brooks and Jackson becoming suddenly effective, the Nittany Lions seem likely to fall back for a year.
Purdue
Standout(s): Robbie Hummel, even despite his injuries that led to a huge drop per-possession (from .5053 to .3626), was still the second-best on the team.
Without JaJuan Johnson's growth into a starring big man (22.3/.4693), Purdue may have had trouble making the NCAA tourney.
Weak link(s): Keaton Grant got heavy minutes and didn't do a lot with them. His .2241 was the worst of any player who got starter's minutes. Maybe itwas just the fact that both he & Moore seem to play better when Hummel is healthy, but one has to wonder whether last season's drastic improvement was an aberration?
Put me in! Marcus Green (.3201) continued to be one of the best 6th men in the conference. Ranking 39th overall as a wing player is no mean feat, and being such a solid option off the bench for two years proved his consistency.
Next Year Notes: Returning their top six players and adding a solid class of freshmen suggests a Big Ten championship awaits these Boilers. Losing a little experienced depth like Green, Calasan, and Riddell off the bench will hurt a little, and the regression of Moore & Grant is a very real concern, but really coach Painter's top worry is the health of Robbie Hummel. Johnson is the top returning center in the conference, but a healthy Hummel is the difference between an okay season and a championship.
Wisconsin
Standout(s): Joe Krabbenhoft (21.4/.4796) was the clear standout on this team, in terms of efficiency. During the year I actually thought that he should become a little less effective by leading and shooting a little more, but that wasn't his game. 3rd overall in per-game production and 4th in per-possession, he was runner-up to Goran Suton for POY in these stats.
Weak link(s): I didn't think too much of Jordan Taylor & Rob Wilson during the year, and they were below-average overall, but for freshmen guards they actually did fine in per-possession terms. But the real weak link was Tim Jarmusz, who came in at 89th. His .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year.
Put me in! Per-possession, Jon Leuer (.3888) and Keaton Nankivil (.3858) were both actually well above-average. Of course, Marcus Landry & Joe Krabbenhoft were even better, so they ate up most of the minutes at the four-spot. Overall, I think Bo Ryan's pretty good at playing his most effective players the most minutes.
Next Year Notes: Jarmusz's .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year. Nankivil & Leuer should do just fine with the extra minutes inside. But the loss of Krabbenhoft & Landry is going to hurt. Unless the redshirts (Evans & Berggren) can really contribute and Mike Bruesewitz is the second coming of Krabbenhoft, I have a hard time seeing the Badgers make the NCAA's next season.
Monday, January 19, 2009
My Rating System, and why it is the way it is.
Josh from the Excellent Big Ten Geeks blog asked me about my rating system formula, and I thought I'd write up a full explanation.
The non-secret Formula:
Points + Rebounds + Offensive Rebounds + [2 x(Steals+Blocks)] + (2.5 x Assists) - [Missed FGs + (2 x Turnovers) + (Missed FTs/2)]
Divide by game for per-game rating (hpg), and divide by individual possession for per-possession rating (hpps).
Explanation/non-defense thereof:
I started working the formula up back when I was following the NBA in the early '90's, sort of as a way to figure out who might be best in on Fantasy NBA teams. A columnist at USA Today, maybe, proposed some model for comparing players, and I kind of went with it from there. I didn't think of applying it to the college game until a few years ago, when I came across the Big Ten Wonk. He had so many things covered in tempo-free ways, it was inspiring but also intimidating. Effective field goal % and rebounding rates and so much more, as you all well know. However, I like things in a tidier package for comparison's sakes, tho. Kyle Whelliston at Basketball State has a comparable model, but it's pretty much a straight addition of the box score.
Here's the basics: I wanted to reward not only the ability to score points efficiently, but also the other aspects of the game that are so important but not as hyped. And with the Big Ten Wonk's focus on tempo-free comparison, I realized that the possession was the important thing I wanted to factor in. I remember Bob Knight saying about freshmen, that they didn't understand that when they turned it over, that was two points the team lost. And in general, in per-possession stats, that's true: most teams average around 1 point per possession on offense and give up close to the same on defense. But guys like Scottie Pippen, Ekpe Udoh, and Jamarcus Ellis never seemed to get the credit they deserved because their per-game scoring wasn't near other players while their rebounding, passing (well, not Udoh), and ability to get defensive stops went unrecognized. I thought a formula like this might help even it out.
So, obviously points were points, and steals were plus two points, and turnovers were minus two. Offensive rebounds secure a possession where a team shouldn't have one, so that's plus another two points. Blocks are little more difficult, because they aren't always a sure stop, but I figured someone who block shots probably also intimidates or changes shots enough to balance that out: plus two for them as well.
I especially wanted to reward assists. I grew up in Southern Indiana, so passing was always a premium, but it's always irritated me that assists are valued so lightly in other computations (the NBA and Whelliston are examples, but just about every sport puts assists as one point). Especially in basketball, where assists can be on three-point plays or shots, or what should be an assist can so easily turn into a foul on the other team and two more points, to boot. But I figured with a rough count that 30+% of all points come from free-throws and the additional point from three-point makes, so I rounded up to 2.5 points per assist. Really, it should be 2.3 or less, but I was using missed free-throws as minus half-a-point, so for ease, I figured it balanced out. Also, since it's been revealed that the home games result in higher assist counts for the home team, my system could be criticized for putting a premium on the most subjective measure in the box score. But, over 16+ conference games evenly split between home & road, I hope it balances out, too.
I count missed shots as minus one point because offensive rebounds do happen, and some teams used the missed shot as a feature of their offense (Michigan State under Izzo, as well as the Fab Five). And I count rebounds as only one point, as I felt that defensive rebounds are something that basically should happen. Someone else from your team will likely grab that board if you don't. And that's perhaps unfair. But I saw a lot at both the college and professional level of big men grabbing rebounds when noone was near them and snarling or screaming. Besides the aesthetically unpleasantness, I just didn't think that say, DJ White should get as much credit for a rebound on the defensive board -which was often snagged over a teammate (namely Ellis), - as opposed to the rarer and I think harder task of getting a offensive rebound. But, at the end of the season, I may try a tweaked version where I count Def. rebounds as plus two points and missed shots as minus two points. I could also count missed free-throws as minus a full point, also.
The one thing I'd like to do, but sort of flies against the intent of my system, is to reward three-point makes with an extra point due to their value to any offense. It's hard to operate an offense if you don't have shooters to keep the defense from packing it in. But it would require valuing threes as more than just three points in the system, but really as four points each. But it might be necessary in recognizing the value that a guy like Jason Bohannon has to his offense, and especially if I start counting defensive rebounds as two points.
Any (collegial) thoughts or suggestions are, as always, completely welcome.
The non-secret Formula:
Points + Rebounds + Offensive Rebounds + [2 x(Steals+Blocks)] + (2.5 x Assists) - [Missed FGs + (2 x Turnovers) + (Missed FTs/2)]
Divide by game for per-game rating (hpg), and divide by individual possession for per-possession rating (hpps).
Explanation/non-defense thereof:
I started working the formula up back when I was following the NBA in the early '90's, sort of as a way to figure out who might be best in on Fantasy NBA teams. A columnist at USA Today, maybe, proposed some model for comparing players, and I kind of went with it from there. I didn't think of applying it to the college game until a few years ago, when I came across the Big Ten Wonk. He had so many things covered in tempo-free ways, it was inspiring but also intimidating. Effective field goal % and rebounding rates and so much more, as you all well know. However, I like things in a tidier package for comparison's sakes, tho. Kyle Whelliston at Basketball State has a comparable model, but it's pretty much a straight addition of the box score.
Here's the basics: I wanted to reward not only the ability to score points efficiently, but also the other aspects of the game that are so important but not as hyped. And with the Big Ten Wonk's focus on tempo-free comparison, I realized that the possession was the important thing I wanted to factor in. I remember Bob Knight saying about freshmen, that they didn't understand that when they turned it over, that was two points the team lost. And in general, in per-possession stats, that's true: most teams average around 1 point per possession on offense and give up close to the same on defense. But guys like Scottie Pippen, Ekpe Udoh, and Jamarcus Ellis never seemed to get the credit they deserved because their per-game scoring wasn't near other players while their rebounding, passing (well, not Udoh), and ability to get defensive stops went unrecognized. I thought a formula like this might help even it out.
So, obviously points were points, and steals were plus two points, and turnovers were minus two. Offensive rebounds secure a possession where a team shouldn't have one, so that's plus another two points. Blocks are little more difficult, because they aren't always a sure stop, but I figured someone who block shots probably also intimidates or changes shots enough to balance that out: plus two for them as well.
I especially wanted to reward assists. I grew up in Southern Indiana, so passing was always a premium, but it's always irritated me that assists are valued so lightly in other computations (the NBA and Whelliston are examples, but just about every sport puts assists as one point). Especially in basketball, where assists can be on three-point plays or shots, or what should be an assist can so easily turn into a foul on the other team and two more points, to boot. But I figured with a rough count that 30+% of all points come from free-throws and the additional point from three-point makes, so I rounded up to 2.5 points per assist. Really, it should be 2.3 or less, but I was using missed free-throws as minus half-a-point, so for ease, I figured it balanced out. Also, since it's been revealed that the home games result in higher assist counts for the home team, my system could be criticized for putting a premium on the most subjective measure in the box score. But, over 16+ conference games evenly split between home & road, I hope it balances out, too.
I count missed shots as minus one point because offensive rebounds do happen, and some teams used the missed shot as a feature of their offense (Michigan State under Izzo, as well as the Fab Five). And I count rebounds as only one point, as I felt that defensive rebounds are something that basically should happen. Someone else from your team will likely grab that board if you don't. And that's perhaps unfair. But I saw a lot at both the college and professional level of big men grabbing rebounds when noone was near them and snarling or screaming. Besides the aesthetically unpleasantness, I just didn't think that say, DJ White should get as much credit for a rebound on the defensive board -which was often snagged over a teammate (namely Ellis), - as opposed to the rarer and I think harder task of getting a offensive rebound. But, at the end of the season, I may try a tweaked version where I count Def. rebounds as plus two points and missed shots as minus two points. I could also count missed free-throws as minus a full point, also.
The one thing I'd like to do, but sort of flies against the intent of my system, is to reward three-point makes with an extra point due to their value to any offense. It's hard to operate an offense if you don't have shooters to keep the defense from packing it in. But it would require valuing threes as more than just three points in the system, but really as four points each. But it might be necessary in recognizing the value that a guy like Jason Bohannon has to his offense, and especially if I start counting defensive rebounds as two points.
Any (collegial) thoughts or suggestions are, as always, completely welcome.
Thursday, January 1, 2009
PreConference Player ratings for 2009
Obviously, a rating system is not so valuable when it's out of conference, and the strength of schedule is a variable. Also, a lot of players get a few minutes here or there and then see basically no time in conference play. Their efficiency ratings tend to vary wildly (reserve centers especially tend to post per-possession ratings north of .8000, with four doing so this year), so I cut 20 players off the bat for, well, for being walk-ons and receiving walk-on minutes. I also cut anyone averaging under 10 possessions a game, which threw out most of the outliers, including all of those centers. So, by the time I started putting together averages, 36 of the original 151 players that've seen action for Big Ten didn't make the cut. As a result of this selective inflation, and due to the historical tendency for efficiency averages to drop during Big Ten play, don't take these ratings as definitive... anything. But I do think they'll still be useful in spotting some trends overall.
Explanation of the system is here and this PreConference spreadsheet full report is here.
Average HPPG: 11.4
Mode HPPG: 9.0
Average HPPS: .3239
Mode HPPS: .2918
Top Ten Per-Game performers
Manny Harris, Michigan (33.1)
Talor Battle, PSU (31.7)
Damian Johnson, Minnesota (26.9)
Evan Turner, Ohio State (26.4)
DeShawn Sims, Michigan (26)
Al Nolen, Minnesota (25.9)
Rob Hummel, Purdue (25.8)
Chester Frazier, Illinois (24.5)
Kevin Coble, Northwestern (23.2)
Kalin Lucas, Michigan State (23.1)
Top Ten Per-Possession performers
Manny Harris, Michigan (.6187)
Damian Johnson, Minnesota (.6079)
Talor Battle, PSU (.5363)
Rob Hummel, Purdue (.5193)
Al Nolen, Minnesota (.5167)
DeShawn Sims, Michigan (.5159)
Goran Suton, Michigan State (.5066)
Dominique Keller, Illinois (.5051)
Draymond Green, Michigan State (.4979)
JaJuan Johnson, Purdue (.4924)
Top 15 Freshmen
Colton Iverson (15.9/.4901)
JOhn Shurna (15.2/.4838)
Tom Pritchard (20.8/.4181)
Matt Gatens (17.0/.3898)
Lewis Jackson (11.6/.3134)
Draymond Green (6.6/.4979)
Ralph Sampson (14.4/.4741)
Delvon Roe (12.5/.3988)
Laval Lucas-Perry (12.3/.3772)
Korie Lucious (4.8/.3171)
BJ Mullens (11.4/.3723)
Anthony Tucker (13.2//.3622)
William Buford (9.7/.2832)
Verdell Jones (9.8/.2757)
Stu Douglass (9.0/.2734)
School reviews
Illinois
Definitely some surprises here. Dominique Keller (.5051) is tops on the team in per-possession efficiency, but with Mike Davis producing so well (20.9/.4498), I'm not shocked that Keller's PT is still low. But that'll increase in conference play, I bet. On the other end of the spectrum, Alex Legion only has a few games under his belt, but after a year of practicing with the team, I really expected a better start. Instead, Legion is second only to OSU's Walter Offutt as the worst per-possession performer (at .0423). Chester Frazier has been producing very
well (24.5/.4811), but once again, he's carrying a heavy load in minutes, although this year it seems to be justified.
Indiana
Uh, not much good news here, so let's start with the bad. Only one player is above average in per-possession efficiency, and the only player who falls in the average range is Kyle Taber (at .3194). There's not much to glean here in terms of who should be playing more, Crean's doing the best he can with a bad hand. But I would suggest play Tom Pritchard, Taber, and Verdell Jones until their legs fall off.
In the good news column, Pritchard's one the best freshmen in the conference (20.8/.4181), which should bring good returns in future seasons. Jones is only slightly-below average (.2757), and has shown the ability to make plays. Aesthetically, he bothers me with his poor decisions, but just keep Moore at point most of the time. Moore's okay for a freshman point guard, but that still compares badly outside of that paradigm. Devan Dumes had a recent resurgence, but unless he starts hitting threes consistently, Crean might as well give those minutes to anyone else, even Matt Roth, who's incredibly poor .1819 average is still above Dumes' .1732 rating.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes in general have been much better than I expected, and Jake Kelly & Jeff Peterson who were really poor in last season's efficiency standings, have been very good (.4533 & ..3556, respectively). Anthony Tucker has been a bit of pleasant surprise, until he got himself suspended (13.2/.3622). Fellow freshman Matt Gatens has been quite good as well (17.0/.3898), and Cyrus Tate has been as good as expected (15.9/.4781). However, interior play is a big concern, as Jarryd Cole (.1926) and Aaron Fuller(.2538) are pretty disappointing so far.
Michigan
I didn't expect Coach Beilien to revive this program so fast, especially after last season's efficiency stud, Ekpe Udoh, transferred in the offseason. But Michigan's small-ball offense and 1-3-1 defense have been effective this year. Obviously the key to all of this is Manny Harris' player-of-the-year level performance (33.1/.6187). He's been very good at scoring in every way, as well as cutting down on turnovers while increasing assists and not to mention rebounding like a power forward. In looking for more PT, CJ Lee has a case with his low-usage, above-average play (.3669), but it's unlikely to happen if Laval Lucas-Perry (12.3/.3772) keeps shooting lights-out from three.
Michigan State
Well, these ratings might give Spartan Weblog's kj some relief. Kalin Lucas, while not the best point guard, is the best per-game performer (23.1) on the MSU team due to his incredible 7:1 assist/to ratio. Lucas' poor-shooting keeps him out of the top 5, tho, but just one more made three per game would put him with the conference's elite. A quick glance down the Sparties' assist-turnover stats shows Lucas' value to the team, as only Travis Walton has a positive ratio among the major minute earners. But Walton still turns it over too much for a senior combo guard. Goran Suton's
return is helping the offense tremendously(20.2), and he's already MSU's best per-possession performer(.5066), and with Lucas and #11 Raymar Morgan (21.0/.4579), gives the Sparties three top-15 per-game producers. The per-possession news isn't as great, but it's still pretty good, and in particular reserve Draymond Green (.4979) is looking to be featured a little more, as his per-possession rating is second only to Suton's on the team. MSU looks good for a conference title, I think.
Minnesota
The center position is paying dividends for Tubby Smith, as his three of his top five per-possession performers are freshmen Colton Iverson(.4901) and Ralph Sampson (.4741) followed by senior reserve Jonathan Williams(.4589). Lawrence Westbrook (.3405) & Blake Hoffarber (.3246) are slightly above average, but outside of the outstanding Damian Johnson (.6079) & Al Nolen(.5167), there actually isn't much efficient depth here on a per-possession basis. Former Juco POY Devron Bostick has been somewhat disappointing (.2853), serving more as a role player than the expected impact wing. Honestly, former walk-on Travis Busch has been as good as a non-center bench option as coach Smith has (at .3259).
Northwestern
The big turnaround for NU is no mystery. Freshmen John Shurna, Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and David Curletti have provided quality inside play to complement to last year's starters Craig Moore, Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Ivan Peljusic. Jeff Ryan has been effective enough off the bench (.3306), far better than as a part-time starter last season, but the presence of Shurna upfront has allowed Coble to return to an effective combo-forward role (23.2/.4546). One note of concern, outside of Shurna's team-leading per-possession efficiency (at .4838), the other freshmen bigs are all well below average. This suggests that we shouldn't quite believe in NU making the NCAA tourney quite yet. Still, the future is looking much brighter for coach Carmody.
Ohio State
One of the major stories of the early season was OSU's resurgence and Evan Turner's incredible play. However, you'll note that Turner's production is quite good on a per-game basis, he's not in the top ten per-possession. His rating falls down to 17th there, which is still very good, but I think he's not going to be conference POY. Frosh center BJ Mullens hasn't been quite as good as expected, but he's been solid per-possession (.3723), and Dallas Lauderdale's incredible improvement (18.1/.4637) has kept Mullens on the bench a little more than I expected. However, per-possession, noone else is really even at an average efficiency level. Power Forward Nikola Kecman should be available for conference play and might add another shooter and rebounder for OSU. Matta's club in good shape for a NCAA bid, but the flat loss to WVU does call the resurgence into some question.
Penn State
Talor Battle has been incredible so far this year, 2nd in per-game production (31.7) and 3rd in per-possession efficiency (.5363). Stanley Pringle has also been quite good (20.8/.4465), but outside of Jamelle Cornley's slightly above-average efficiency (.3402), there isn't a lot of guys who should be playing more. Jeff Brooks is above-average (3294), but he can only take minutes from Cornley and Andrew Jones (.3125), who is the only other average player. And now Andrew Ott is looking to get some PT as well, but the early returns haven't bad, but not really great either. As always, the defense and strength of schedule are questions for the Nittany Lions going into conference play. But PSU has a shot at the post-season due to Battle's fantastic play.
Purdue
The Boilermakers are certainly one of the best teams in the conference, but outside of JaJuan Johnson's improvement (19.4/.4924) and freshman point Lewis Jackson (11.6/.3134), there isn't a lot of great news here. Sure, the guards are fine, Marcus Green is still great off the bench (possessing a very good .4161) and Robbie Hummel is still great(25.8/.5193). But Keaton Grant has regressed back a couple years, taking a significant step backward (.2196) from last season's performance, and E'Twuann Moore isn't looking like the all-conference guard he was last season (dropping to .3475). But Purdue usually seems to be better in conference play than
outside it, so look for most of these averages to improve soon.
Wisconsin
Jon Leuer is the big winner of the Badgers in per-possesion terms (.4792), but the core of Marcus Landry, Jon Krabbenhoft, and Trevon Hughes has been quite good as well. Keaton Nankivil has been a pleasant surprise as a starter at the center spot,
but his average performance (9.0/.3109) still has left the Badgers significantly worse off on interior than last season, when Brian Butch & Greg Stiemsma were the best 1-2 punch in the Big Ten. The freshmen class has been extremely disappointing so far, with only Jordan Taylor and Rob Wilson getting any significant time, and both of the them posting the fifth and fourth lowest per-possession ratings (.0593 & .0594 respectively). But coach Ryan always develops his players slowly, and is one of the best in the business, so Badger fans shouldn't worry about the future.
Explanation of the system is here and this PreConference spreadsheet full report is here.
Average HPPG: 11.4
Mode HPPG: 9.0
Average HPPS: .3239
Mode HPPS: .2918
Top Ten Per-Game performers
Manny Harris, Michigan (33.1)
Talor Battle, PSU (31.7)
Damian Johnson, Minnesota (26.9)
Evan Turner, Ohio State (26.4)
DeShawn Sims, Michigan (26)
Al Nolen, Minnesota (25.9)
Rob Hummel, Purdue (25.8)
Chester Frazier, Illinois (24.5)
Kevin Coble, Northwestern (23.2)
Kalin Lucas, Michigan State (23.1)
Top Ten Per-Possession performers
Manny Harris, Michigan (.6187)
Damian Johnson, Minnesota (.6079)
Talor Battle, PSU (.5363)
Rob Hummel, Purdue (.5193)
Al Nolen, Minnesota (.5167)
DeShawn Sims, Michigan (.5159)
Goran Suton, Michigan State (.5066)
Dominique Keller, Illinois (.5051)
Draymond Green, Michigan State (.4979)
JaJuan Johnson, Purdue (.4924)
Top 15 Freshmen
Colton Iverson (15.9/.4901)
JOhn Shurna (15.2/.4838)
Tom Pritchard (20.8/.4181)
Matt Gatens (17.0/.3898)
Lewis Jackson (11.6/.3134)
Draymond Green (6.6/.4979)
Ralph Sampson (14.4/.4741)
Delvon Roe (12.5/.3988)
Laval Lucas-Perry (12.3/.3772)
Korie Lucious (4.8/.3171)
BJ Mullens (11.4/.3723)
Anthony Tucker (13.2//.3622)
William Buford (9.7/.2832)
Verdell Jones (9.8/.2757)
Stu Douglass (9.0/.2734)
School reviews
Illinois
Definitely some surprises here. Dominique Keller (.5051) is tops on the team in per-possession efficiency, but with Mike Davis producing so well (20.9/.4498), I'm not shocked that Keller's PT is still low. But that'll increase in conference play, I bet. On the other end of the spectrum, Alex Legion only has a few games under his belt, but after a year of practicing with the team, I really expected a better start. Instead, Legion is second only to OSU's Walter Offutt as the worst per-possession performer (at .0423). Chester Frazier has been producing very
well (24.5/.4811), but once again, he's carrying a heavy load in minutes, although this year it seems to be justified.
Indiana
Uh, not much good news here, so let's start with the bad. Only one player is above average in per-possession efficiency, and the only player who falls in the average range is Kyle Taber (at .3194). There's not much to glean here in terms of who should be playing more, Crean's doing the best he can with a bad hand. But I would suggest play Tom Pritchard, Taber, and Verdell Jones until their legs fall off.
In the good news column, Pritchard's one the best freshmen in the conference (20.8/.4181), which should bring good returns in future seasons. Jones is only slightly-below average (.2757), and has shown the ability to make plays. Aesthetically, he bothers me with his poor decisions, but just keep Moore at point most of the time. Moore's okay for a freshman point guard, but that still compares badly outside of that paradigm. Devan Dumes had a recent resurgence, but unless he starts hitting threes consistently, Crean might as well give those minutes to anyone else, even Matt Roth, who's incredibly poor .1819 average is still above Dumes' .1732 rating.
Iowa
The Hawkeyes in general have been much better than I expected, and Jake Kelly & Jeff Peterson who were really poor in last season's efficiency standings, have been very good (.4533 & ..3556, respectively). Anthony Tucker has been a bit of pleasant surprise, until he got himself suspended (13.2/.3622). Fellow freshman Matt Gatens has been quite good as well (17.0/.3898), and Cyrus Tate has been as good as expected (15.9/.4781). However, interior play is a big concern, as Jarryd Cole (.1926) and Aaron Fuller(.2538) are pretty disappointing so far.
Michigan
I didn't expect Coach Beilien to revive this program so fast, especially after last season's efficiency stud, Ekpe Udoh, transferred in the offseason. But Michigan's small-ball offense and 1-3-1 defense have been effective this year. Obviously the key to all of this is Manny Harris' player-of-the-year level performance (33.1/.6187). He's been very good at scoring in every way, as well as cutting down on turnovers while increasing assists and not to mention rebounding like a power forward. In looking for more PT, CJ Lee has a case with his low-usage, above-average play (.3669), but it's unlikely to happen if Laval Lucas-Perry (12.3/.3772) keeps shooting lights-out from three.
Michigan State
Well, these ratings might give Spartan Weblog's kj some relief. Kalin Lucas, while not the best point guard, is the best per-game performer (23.1) on the MSU team due to his incredible 7:1 assist/to ratio. Lucas' poor-shooting keeps him out of the top 5, tho, but just one more made three per game would put him with the conference's elite. A quick glance down the Sparties' assist-turnover stats shows Lucas' value to the team, as only Travis Walton has a positive ratio among the major minute earners. But Walton still turns it over too much for a senior combo guard. Goran Suton's
return is helping the offense tremendously(20.2), and he's already MSU's best per-possession performer(.5066), and with Lucas and #11 Raymar Morgan (21.0/.4579), gives the Sparties three top-15 per-game producers. The per-possession news isn't as great, but it's still pretty good, and in particular reserve Draymond Green (.4979) is looking to be featured a little more, as his per-possession rating is second only to Suton's on the team. MSU looks good for a conference title, I think.
Minnesota
The center position is paying dividends for Tubby Smith, as his three of his top five per-possession performers are freshmen Colton Iverson(.4901) and Ralph Sampson (.4741) followed by senior reserve Jonathan Williams(.4589). Lawrence Westbrook (.3405) & Blake Hoffarber (.3246) are slightly above average, but outside of the outstanding Damian Johnson (.6079) & Al Nolen(.5167), there actually isn't much efficient depth here on a per-possession basis. Former Juco POY Devron Bostick has been somewhat disappointing (.2853), serving more as a role player than the expected impact wing. Honestly, former walk-on Travis Busch has been as good as a non-center bench option as coach Smith has (at .3259).
Northwestern
The big turnaround for NU is no mystery. Freshmen John Shurna, Kyle Rowley, Luka Mirkovic, and David Curletti have provided quality inside play to complement to last year's starters Craig Moore, Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Ivan Peljusic. Jeff Ryan has been effective enough off the bench (.3306), far better than as a part-time starter last season, but the presence of Shurna upfront has allowed Coble to return to an effective combo-forward role (23.2/.4546). One note of concern, outside of Shurna's team-leading per-possession efficiency (at .4838), the other freshmen bigs are all well below average. This suggests that we shouldn't quite believe in NU making the NCAA tourney quite yet. Still, the future is looking much brighter for coach Carmody.
Ohio State
One of the major stories of the early season was OSU's resurgence and Evan Turner's incredible play. However, you'll note that Turner's production is quite good on a per-game basis, he's not in the top ten per-possession. His rating falls down to 17th there, which is still very good, but I think he's not going to be conference POY. Frosh center BJ Mullens hasn't been quite as good as expected, but he's been solid per-possession (.3723), and Dallas Lauderdale's incredible improvement (18.1/.4637) has kept Mullens on the bench a little more than I expected. However, per-possession, noone else is really even at an average efficiency level. Power Forward Nikola Kecman should be available for conference play and might add another shooter and rebounder for OSU. Matta's club in good shape for a NCAA bid, but the flat loss to WVU does call the resurgence into some question.
Penn State
Talor Battle has been incredible so far this year, 2nd in per-game production (31.7) and 3rd in per-possession efficiency (.5363). Stanley Pringle has also been quite good (20.8/.4465), but outside of Jamelle Cornley's slightly above-average efficiency (.3402), there isn't a lot of guys who should be playing more. Jeff Brooks is above-average (3294), but he can only take minutes from Cornley and Andrew Jones (.3125), who is the only other average player. And now Andrew Ott is looking to get some PT as well, but the early returns haven't bad, but not really great either. As always, the defense and strength of schedule are questions for the Nittany Lions going into conference play. But PSU has a shot at the post-season due to Battle's fantastic play.
Purdue
The Boilermakers are certainly one of the best teams in the conference, but outside of JaJuan Johnson's improvement (19.4/.4924) and freshman point Lewis Jackson (11.6/.3134), there isn't a lot of great news here. Sure, the guards are fine, Marcus Green is still great off the bench (possessing a very good .4161) and Robbie Hummel is still great(25.8/.5193). But Keaton Grant has regressed back a couple years, taking a significant step backward (.2196) from last season's performance, and E'Twuann Moore isn't looking like the all-conference guard he was last season (dropping to .3475). But Purdue usually seems to be better in conference play than
outside it, so look for most of these averages to improve soon.
Wisconsin
Jon Leuer is the big winner of the Badgers in per-possesion terms (.4792), but the core of Marcus Landry, Jon Krabbenhoft, and Trevon Hughes has been quite good as well. Keaton Nankivil has been a pleasant surprise as a starter at the center spot,
but his average performance (9.0/.3109) still has left the Badgers significantly worse off on interior than last season, when Brian Butch & Greg Stiemsma were the best 1-2 punch in the Big Ten. The freshmen class has been extremely disappointing so far, with only Jordan Taylor and Rob Wilson getting any significant time, and both of the them posting the fifth and fourth lowest per-possession ratings (.0593 & .0594 respectively). But coach Ryan always develops his players slowly, and is one of the best in the business, so Badger fans shouldn't worry about the future.
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