A little bit of breaking down of the individual player rating stats I crunched, and what it all might mean. I'll list my school-by-school notes, and then the top tens.
Illinois
Jaw-droppingly good! Demetri McCamey is playing very well despite a position switch, and seemingly out of nowhere Bill Cole is contributing good minutes.
I'm concerned... The freshmen wings have pretty low per-possession ratings, but that's pretty standard. What worries me is Dominique Keller's sudden decline in effectiveness and in minutes.
I can haz more PT? Tyler Griffey is posting some very efficient numbers in his limited PT so far. Look to hear his name more and more.
Indiana
Jaw-droppingly good! Verdell Jones maintaining his effective performance despite increased usage bears mention here. Otherwise, it's Bobby Capobianco's surprisingly effective play off the bench that's the biggest positive.
I'm concerned... Despite Jordan Hulls' low rating, I'm not concerned about him. He's effectively replacing Matt Roth's contributions, who would be playing those minutes instead of Creek should they not both be injured. No, I'm concerned about Tom Pritchard, who has spiralled ever lower since the beginning of Big Ten play a year ago. He looks good out there sometimes, just not statistically.
I can haz more PT? Really, Capobianco & Derek Elston, even with their just average performances, are better per-possession than Pritchard & Watford.
Iowa
Jaw-droppingly good! Aaron Fuller is off to a hot start, certainly, but Andrew Brommer is showing a rare streak of effectiveness heretofore unseen.
I'm concerned... Matt Gatens appears to be getting overwhelmed. I don't fault him, But Jarryd Cole, Eric May, and Cully Payne aren't helping anything. And Brennan Cougill has taken a real nosedive, too.
I can haz more PT? Um, besides Brommer and Fuller, John Lickliter (Lil' Lick) and Devan Bawinkel have played okay so far, which better than the rest of the team.
Michigan
Jaw-droppingly good! Darius Morris. I watched him in two of these games, and I was not impressed. But he's putting up the numbers.
I'm concerned... Stu Douglass is playing a lot of minutes, and despite a nice game at Indiana, has not been playing well.
I can haz more PT? Morris for Douglass. Prtetty straightforward. Everyone else is playing as expected, but frehsman shooter Matt Vogrich and (of course) Zack Gibson deserve a few more possessions each game, surely.
Michigan State
Jaw-droppingly good! Draymond Green. I've been suggesting for a while that Green should get more minutes, but I didn't foresee Dancing Bear becoming the cream of the crop so fast. Also, Raymar Morgan is playing pretty well, and deserves some recognition for it.
I'm concerned... Kalin Lucas has turned in a merely average start, but hey, he had a great pre-season and MSU is still 5-0. The real concern here is Delvon Roe has regressed at a time when he should be moving forward.
I can haz more PT? There's not much to go onat this point, but it keeps looking to me like Tom Herzog adds more than Derrick Nix or Garrick Sherman. MSU watchers- does this correlate with what you've seen?
Minnesota
Jaw-droppingly good! Damian Johnson is putting together another great year, but what really flipped me was how well Devron Bostick is doing right out of the gate. This kid can play, and I find it hard to believe Tubby can only find 17 possessions a game for Bostick when this team is struggling.
I'm concerned... The really poor performance here is being turned in by reserve center Colton Iverson, who was looking last season like he might challenge Ralph Sampson for the starting spot. But another, perhaps bigger, concern is that Lawrence Westbrook hasn't been playing very well, and has regressed slightly from last season.
I can haz more PT? Bostick, Sampson, and Paul Carter all need to get more minutes, and Tubby needs some more quality wins if the Gophers are going to make into the NCAAs again.
Northwestern
Jaw-droppingly good! Luka Mirkovic has quietly put together a stellar performance, currently ranking as the conference's most efficiently productive center. I thought he'd be good, but after a mediocre pre-season, he's taken off.
I'm concerned... Jeremy Nash has really crash-landed, and outside of reserve Davide Curletti's pure incompetence, has the lowest rating on the team.
I can haz more PT? Mmm, not too much to do here. If Nash continues to struggle, than maybe Carmody should try to develop frosh Alex Marcotullio a little more.
Ohio State
Jaw-droppingly good! William Buford probably fits this description, getting a lot of usage and delivering. Evan Turner's been better than expected at this point (on the court and playing well), but not at the amazing level he was playing at before he got hurt.
I'm concerned... Outside of those two, and PJ Hill, there's very few players with any kind of efficiency on this team. I also expected more of Zisis Sarikoupolis, who has done literally nothing with his minutes so far.
I can haz more PT? Uh, PJ Hill could see a few more minutes, and while his sample size is very small, Nikola Kecman seems like he could contribute more, if given a chance.
Penn State
Jaw-droppingly good! Tim Frazier actually has been pretty decent for a freshman point guard, but overall, I'm pretty surprised how good the ratings are for most of the players on this awful team. How are they playing decently and yet still are 0-6?
I'm concerned... Well, one answer is the interior play has been dreadful. Noone down low can manufacture any offense (altho' Ott might be showing signs of life), and freshman Bill Edwards has been getting a fair amount of usage while not being very good. But the real standout for poor achievement has been Andrew Jones. His NIT championship-game performance seems years away now, as he is probably the worst starting center in the conference.
I can haz more PT? Ott and Frazier certainly could use a few more minutes, and it would look like Cameron Woodyard should be getting some minutes on the wing, too, as long as his shooting is not still ice-cold.
Purdue
Jaw-droppingly good! Robbie Hummel. Dang, this kid is good. E'Twuann Moore is also looking more like the player he was as a freshman rather than mediocre version that showed up last season.
I'm concerned... The freshmen have been pretty awful, as Byrd & Bade aren't contributing anything, and Barlow's rating is pretty low. But honestly I'm even more concerned about JaJuan Johnson's drop from the Big Ten's best center to merely middle-of-the-pack. Can he and Hummel not both be excellent in the same season?
I can haz more PT? Squeeze those starters until they pop, coach Painter- you ain't got noone else. (Although Painter did break out reserve guard John Hart against Illinois, so maybe he'll have some sort of bench after all)
Wisconsin
Jaw-droppingly good! Jason Bohannon, for a pure shooter, is turning a great performance so far. Really commendable. Also, Jordan Taylor, who didn't show much last season, is part of a three-guard lineup that is prospering.
I'm concerned... Tim Jarmusz is really not stepping up, at a time when his outside shooting and height could be a real asset. Also, Keaton Nankivil's performance seems to be dipping at a time when the Badgers need him the most.
I can haz more PT? Mike Bruesewitz, in just 9 possessions a game, is posting the 12th-best average in the conference. I'd say to find some minutes for this guy, especially if Leuer isn't coming back soon. But Bo knows best, I suppose.
Top Ten Players
F- Green, Draymond (43.1) 28.3 / .6576
F- Hummel, Robbie (58.4) 32.3 / .5529
C- Mirkovic, Luka (42.4) 22.9 / .5396
PG- McCamey, Demetri (56.8) 28.3 /.4981
SG- Harris, Manny (55.7) 25.7 / .4617
PF- Johnson, Damian (42.9) 22.5 /.5235
SF- Morgan, Raymar (42.4) 20.2 / .4767
C- Sims, DeShawn (56.9) 26.7 / .4691
SG- Bohannon, Jason (55.5) 20.6 / .3711
PG- Turner, Evan (49.8) 23.1 / .4648
Freshmen Fifteen
PF- Watford, Christian (50.2) 12.5 / .2691
SF- Crawford, Drew (48.3) 17.5 / .3622
C- Capobianco, Bobby (20.2) 5.9 / .2921
SG- Richardson, DJ (51.4) 11.5 / .2239
PG- Morris, Darius (36.2) 15.8 / .4369
F- Bruesewitz, Mike (9.1) 4.1 / .4529
F- Evans, Ryan (20.4) 6.0 / .2935
C- Griffey, Tyler (11.5) 5.0 / .4323
G- Frazier, Tim (27.7) 8.5 / .3069
PG- Lickliter, John (20.7) 6.0 / .2902
PF- Elston, Derek (19.6) 5.5 / .2813
SF- Williams, Rodney (15.9) 3.6 / .2868
C- Nix, Derrick (14.5) 3.2 / .2214
SG- Vogrich, Matt (7.5) 3.3 / .4372
PG- Cobb, Justin (21.8) 5.7 / .2604
Friday, January 22, 2010
Thursday, January 21, 2010
Early Per-Possession Player Ratings
A very early version of my per-possession rating system is out. This is for the conference games only, and even though its just a third of the way through the conference season, I thought it'd be fun to crunch some numbers. As usual, the where and the why can be found here. The numbers are listed in this order:
Last Name, First Name (individual possessions per game) effective production per game / effective production per possession
Illinois (4-1)
McCamey, Demetri (56.8) 28.3 /.4981
Tisdale, Mike (51.4) 22.5 / .4381
Davis, Mike (49.4) 13.6 / .3439
Richardson, DJ (51.4) 11.5 / .2239
Paul, Brandon (21.8) 4.1 / .1878
Cole, Bill (38.8) 11.2 / .2884
Jordan, Jeff (28.2) 6.7 / .2372
Keller, Dominique (18.9) 4.2 / .2218
Griffey, Tyler (11.5) 5.0 / .4323
Semrau, Richard (7.3) 2.5 / .3419
Indiana (2-3)
Jones, Verdell (56.1) 19.1 / .3408
Rivers, Jeremiah (54.7) 16.0 / .2923
Watford, Christian (50.2) 12.5 / .2691
Hulls, Jordan (53.1) 10.2 / .1921
Pritchard, Tom (35.8) 4.4 / .1228
Dumes, Devan (28.7) 7.2 / .2511
Elston, Derek (19.6) 5.5 / .2813
Capobianco, Bobby (20.2) 5.9 / .2921
Moore, Daniel (12.4) 3.0 /.2423
Iowa (1-4)
Fuller, Aaron (46.8) 17.4 / .3715
Gatens, Matt (58.1) 10.4 / .1789
Payne, Cully (48.1) 5.4 / .1122
Cole, Jarryd (36.5) 7.5 / .2055
May, Eric (58.1) 10.7 / .2012
Lickliter, John (20.7) 6.0 / .2902
Bawinkel, Devan (21.9) 6.7 / .3051
Brommer, Andrew (16.6) 7.3 / .4379
Cougill, Brennan (18.4) 1.2 / .0978
Michigan (3-2)
Harris, Manny (55.7) 25.7 / .4617
Sims, DeShawn (56.9) 26.7 / .4691
Novak, Zach (54.1) 13.4 / .2477
Douglass, Stu (50.9) 10.1 / .1982
Laval-Perry, Lucas (37.4) 9.4 / .2511
Morris, Darius (36.2) 15.8 / .4369
Vogrich, Matt (7.5) 3.3 / .4372
Gibson, Zack (6.3) 2.8 / .4452
Wright, Anthony (11.4) 0 / 0
Michigan State (5-0)
Green, Draymond (43.1) 28.3 / .6576
Morgan, Raymar (42.4) 20.2 / .4767
Lucas, Kalin (52.9) 14.9 / .2817
Allen, Chris (45.9) 14.6 / .3175
Roe, Delvon (33.5) 8.4 / .2509
Summers, Durrell (40.7) 11.5 / .2823
Nix, Derrick (14.5) 3.2 / .2214
Lucious, Korie (34.8) 10.6 / .3044
Sherman, Gerrick (7.9) 1.0 / .1268
Thornton, Austin (7.4) 0 /0
Minnesota (3-3)
Johnson, Damian (42.9) 22.5 /.5235
Nolen, Al (44.4) 16.7 / .3551
Sampson, Ralph (35.6) 17.0 / .4781
Hoffarber, Blake (47.1) 16.5 / .3502
Westbrook, Lawrence (44.1) 11.7 / .2647
Carter, Paul (23.4) 8.8 / .3772
Williams, Rodney (15.9) 3.6 / .2868
Iverson, Colton (28.7) 5.5 / .1919
Joseph, Devoe (28.1) 9.0 / .3321
Bostick, Devron (16.8) 9.4 / .5589
Cobb, Justin (21.8) 5.7 / .2604
Northwestern (2-3)
Shurna, John (61.1) 23.5 / .3851
Mirkovic, Luka (42.4) 22.9 / .5396
Thompson, Michael (62.6) 18.3 / .2925
Crawford, Drew (48.3) 17.5 / .3622
Nash, Jeremy (55.1) 10.3 / .1868
Marcotullio, Alex (24.5) 4.8 /.1962
Rowley, Kyle (15.8) 3.4 / .2152
Curletti, Davide (7.5) 0 / 0
Ohio State (3-3)
Turner, Evan (49.8) 23.1 / .4648
Buford, William (58.9) 20.8 / .3541
Lighty, David (55.6) 14.1 / .2546
Diebler, Jon (58.9) 13.0 / .2209
Lauderdale, Dallas (41.7) 8.6 / .2057
Hill, PJ (25.1) 8.7 / .3479
Simmons, Jeremie (21.1) 3.1 / .1459
Madsen, Kyle (19.8) 2.1 / .1052
Sarikopoulis, Zizis (7.2) 0 / 0
Kecman, Nikola (5.4) 1.6 / .3115
Penn State (0-5)
Battle, Talor (58.1) 19.9 / .3408
Jackson, David (46.4) 13.5 / .2912
Babb, Chris (44.5) 12.7 / .2851
Brooks, Jeff (33.4) 10.1 /.3023
Jones, Andrew (34.9) 3.9 /.1117
Edwards, Bill (25.9) 5.6 / .2163
Frazier, Tim (27.7) 8.5 / .3069
Woodyard, Cameron (16.1) 5.5 / .3426
Ott, Andrew (18.9) 5.0 / .2637
Highberger, Adam (6.0) 0 / 0
Purdue (2-3)
Hummel, Robbie (58.4) 32.3 / .5529
Moore, E'Twuann (55.4) 22.6 / .4076
Johnson, JaJuan (50.2) 17.1 / .3409
Kramer, Chris (48.2) 13.9 / .2885
Grant, Keaton (36.3) 7.6 / .2094
Barlow, Kelsey (24.8) 4.5 / .1818
Smith, Ryne (27.7) 2.0 / .0722
Wohlford, Mark (8.3) 1.9 / .2273
Byrd, DJ (12.9) 0 / 0
Bade, Patrick (9.6) 1.6 / .1672
Wisconsin (4-2)
Bohannon, Jason (55.5) 20.6 / .3711
Hughes, Trevon (49.6) 18.1 / .3643
Taylor, Jordan (43.6) 15.5 / .3559
Leuer, Jon (38.7) 12.5 / .3231
Nankivil, Keaton (38.8) 9.6 / .2468
Jarmusz, Tim (39.9) 6.1 / .1524
Evans, Ryan (20.4) 6.0 / .2935
Wilson, Rob (13.9) 3.9 / .2824
Bruesewitz, Mike (9.1) 4.1 / .4529
Overall-
Mean HPPS
.2846
Median HPPS
.2868
Mean HPPG
10.4
Median HPPG
9.0
Last Name, First Name (individual possessions per game) effective production per game / effective production per possession
Illinois (4-1)
McCamey, Demetri (56.8) 28.3 /.4981
Tisdale, Mike (51.4) 22.5 / .4381
Davis, Mike (49.4) 13.6 / .3439
Richardson, DJ (51.4) 11.5 / .2239
Paul, Brandon (21.8) 4.1 / .1878
Cole, Bill (38.8) 11.2 / .2884
Jordan, Jeff (28.2) 6.7 / .2372
Keller, Dominique (18.9) 4.2 / .2218
Griffey, Tyler (11.5) 5.0 / .4323
Semrau, Richard (7.3) 2.5 / .3419
Indiana (2-3)
Jones, Verdell (56.1) 19.1 / .3408
Rivers, Jeremiah (54.7) 16.0 / .2923
Watford, Christian (50.2) 12.5 / .2691
Hulls, Jordan (53.1) 10.2 / .1921
Pritchard, Tom (35.8) 4.4 / .1228
Dumes, Devan (28.7) 7.2 / .2511
Elston, Derek (19.6) 5.5 / .2813
Capobianco, Bobby (20.2) 5.9 / .2921
Moore, Daniel (12.4) 3.0 /.2423
Iowa (1-4)
Fuller, Aaron (46.8) 17.4 / .3715
Gatens, Matt (58.1) 10.4 / .1789
Payne, Cully (48.1) 5.4 / .1122
Cole, Jarryd (36.5) 7.5 / .2055
May, Eric (58.1) 10.7 / .2012
Lickliter, John (20.7) 6.0 / .2902
Bawinkel, Devan (21.9) 6.7 / .3051
Brommer, Andrew (16.6) 7.3 / .4379
Cougill, Brennan (18.4) 1.2 / .0978
Michigan (3-2)
Harris, Manny (55.7) 25.7 / .4617
Sims, DeShawn (56.9) 26.7 / .4691
Novak, Zach (54.1) 13.4 / .2477
Douglass, Stu (50.9) 10.1 / .1982
Laval-Perry, Lucas (37.4) 9.4 / .2511
Morris, Darius (36.2) 15.8 / .4369
Vogrich, Matt (7.5) 3.3 / .4372
Gibson, Zack (6.3) 2.8 / .4452
Wright, Anthony (11.4) 0 / 0
Michigan State (5-0)
Green, Draymond (43.1) 28.3 / .6576
Morgan, Raymar (42.4) 20.2 / .4767
Lucas, Kalin (52.9) 14.9 / .2817
Allen, Chris (45.9) 14.6 / .3175
Roe, Delvon (33.5) 8.4 / .2509
Summers, Durrell (40.7) 11.5 / .2823
Nix, Derrick (14.5) 3.2 / .2214
Lucious, Korie (34.8) 10.6 / .3044
Sherman, Gerrick (7.9) 1.0 / .1268
Thornton, Austin (7.4) 0 /0
Minnesota (3-3)
Johnson, Damian (42.9) 22.5 /.5235
Nolen, Al (44.4) 16.7 / .3551
Sampson, Ralph (35.6) 17.0 / .4781
Hoffarber, Blake (47.1) 16.5 / .3502
Westbrook, Lawrence (44.1) 11.7 / .2647
Carter, Paul (23.4) 8.8 / .3772
Williams, Rodney (15.9) 3.6 / .2868
Iverson, Colton (28.7) 5.5 / .1919
Joseph, Devoe (28.1) 9.0 / .3321
Bostick, Devron (16.8) 9.4 / .5589
Cobb, Justin (21.8) 5.7 / .2604
Northwestern (2-3)
Shurna, John (61.1) 23.5 / .3851
Mirkovic, Luka (42.4) 22.9 / .5396
Thompson, Michael (62.6) 18.3 / .2925
Crawford, Drew (48.3) 17.5 / .3622
Nash, Jeremy (55.1) 10.3 / .1868
Marcotullio, Alex (24.5) 4.8 /.1962
Rowley, Kyle (15.8) 3.4 / .2152
Curletti, Davide (7.5) 0 / 0
Ohio State (3-3)
Turner, Evan (49.8) 23.1 / .4648
Buford, William (58.9) 20.8 / .3541
Lighty, David (55.6) 14.1 / .2546
Diebler, Jon (58.9) 13.0 / .2209
Lauderdale, Dallas (41.7) 8.6 / .2057
Hill, PJ (25.1) 8.7 / .3479
Simmons, Jeremie (21.1) 3.1 / .1459
Madsen, Kyle (19.8) 2.1 / .1052
Sarikopoulis, Zizis (7.2) 0 / 0
Kecman, Nikola (5.4) 1.6 / .3115
Penn State (0-5)
Battle, Talor (58.1) 19.9 / .3408
Jackson, David (46.4) 13.5 / .2912
Babb, Chris (44.5) 12.7 / .2851
Brooks, Jeff (33.4) 10.1 /.3023
Jones, Andrew (34.9) 3.9 /.1117
Edwards, Bill (25.9) 5.6 / .2163
Frazier, Tim (27.7) 8.5 / .3069
Woodyard, Cameron (16.1) 5.5 / .3426
Ott, Andrew (18.9) 5.0 / .2637
Highberger, Adam (6.0) 0 / 0
Purdue (2-3)
Hummel, Robbie (58.4) 32.3 / .5529
Moore, E'Twuann (55.4) 22.6 / .4076
Johnson, JaJuan (50.2) 17.1 / .3409
Kramer, Chris (48.2) 13.9 / .2885
Grant, Keaton (36.3) 7.6 / .2094
Barlow, Kelsey (24.8) 4.5 / .1818
Smith, Ryne (27.7) 2.0 / .0722
Wohlford, Mark (8.3) 1.9 / .2273
Byrd, DJ (12.9) 0 / 0
Bade, Patrick (9.6) 1.6 / .1672
Wisconsin (4-2)
Bohannon, Jason (55.5) 20.6 / .3711
Hughes, Trevon (49.6) 18.1 / .3643
Taylor, Jordan (43.6) 15.5 / .3559
Leuer, Jon (38.7) 12.5 / .3231
Nankivil, Keaton (38.8) 9.6 / .2468
Jarmusz, Tim (39.9) 6.1 / .1524
Evans, Ryan (20.4) 6.0 / .2935
Wilson, Rob (13.9) 3.9 / .2824
Bruesewitz, Mike (9.1) 4.1 / .4529
Overall-
Mean HPPS
.2846
Median HPPS
.2868
Mean HPPG
10.4
Median HPPG
9.0
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Big Ten '09-'10 Non-Conference Efficiency Report
Quick update on how the Big Ten players are faring in terms of per-game and per-possession efficiency. The what and why can be found here. Frankly, it's a good year overall for the conference.
All the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt -or rather, a shaker- there's no strength of schedule consideration here. The in-conference efficiency numbers are always much more reliable. However, there's some interesting stuff here. The overall pre-conference mean and median per-possession averages are the highest they've been in the three years I've been tracking them, and Evan Turner & Manny Harris are turning in off-the-charts amazing performances. Mike Conley .5859 (per-possession)/48.1 (possessions per game)/28.1 (effective production per game) was the previous record-holder for pre-conference performance, and Harris & Turner have him beat by a mile. And the insane thing is that Turner is at another level entirely above Harris, at least before he got hurt. Wow.
The full report is here, but here's the top tens.
Top Ten Per-Possession Performers
1. Evan Turner, OSU, .7219/54.6/39.4
2. Manny Harris, Mich., .6414/57.3/36.5
3. Draymond Green, MSU, .5727/43.1/24.7
4. Jon Leuer, Wis., .5576/43.8/24.4
5. Damian Johnson, Minn., .5314/46.1/24.5
6. Zack Gibson, Mich., .5236/19.7/10.3
7. Johnson, JaJuan, Pur., .5087/44.1/22.4
8. Delvon Roe, MSU, .5059/39.2/19.9
9. Mike Tisdale, UIUC, .5038/40.9/20.6
10. Devron Bostick, Minn., .4985/12.7/6.3
Top 10 Per-Game
1. Evan Turner
2. Manny Harris
3. Draymond Green
4. Damian Johnson
5. Jon Leuer
6. Robbie Hummel, Pur., .4843/48.6/23.5
7. Maurice Creek, Ind., .4702/48.4/22.7
8. Jeremy Nash, NU, .4038/56.2/22.7
9. JaJuan Johnson
10. Kalin Lucas, MSU, ..4296/52.1/22.4
Top 10 freshmen
1. Tyler Griffey, UIUC, .4925/15.2/7.5
2. Derrick Nix, MSU, .4726/15/7.1
3. Maurice Creek, Ind., .4702/48.4/22.7
4. Drew Crawford, NU, .4614/36.7/16.9
5. Alex Marcotullio, NU, .4561/25.4/11.6
6. Rodney Williams, Minn., .4493/25.1/11.3
7. Derek Elston, Ind., .3937/31.6/12.4
8. Brennan Cougill, Iowa, .3628/32.4/11.8
9. Christian Watford, Ind., .3474/43/14.9
10. Kelsey Barlow, Pur., .3447/28/9.6
Overall-
Mean HPPS
.3474
Median HPPS
.3294
Mean HPPG
11.3
Median HPPG
11.3
All the numbers should be taken with a grain of salt -or rather, a shaker- there's no strength of schedule consideration here. The in-conference efficiency numbers are always much more reliable. However, there's some interesting stuff here. The overall pre-conference mean and median per-possession averages are the highest they've been in the three years I've been tracking them, and Evan Turner & Manny Harris are turning in off-the-charts amazing performances. Mike Conley .5859 (per-possession)/48.1 (possessions per game)/28.1 (effective production per game) was the previous record-holder for pre-conference performance, and Harris & Turner have him beat by a mile. And the insane thing is that Turner is at another level entirely above Harris, at least before he got hurt. Wow.
The full report is here, but here's the top tens.
Top Ten Per-Possession Performers
1. Evan Turner, OSU, .7219/54.6/39.4
2. Manny Harris, Mich., .6414/57.3/36.5
3. Draymond Green, MSU, .5727/43.1/24.7
4. Jon Leuer, Wis., .5576/43.8/24.4
5. Damian Johnson, Minn., .5314/46.1/24.5
6. Zack Gibson, Mich., .5236/19.7/10.3
7. Johnson, JaJuan, Pur., .5087/44.1/22.4
8. Delvon Roe, MSU, .5059/39.2/19.9
9. Mike Tisdale, UIUC, .5038/40.9/20.6
10. Devron Bostick, Minn., .4985/12.7/6.3
Top 10 Per-Game
1. Evan Turner
2. Manny Harris
3. Draymond Green
4. Damian Johnson
5. Jon Leuer
6. Robbie Hummel, Pur., .4843/48.6/23.5
7. Maurice Creek, Ind., .4702/48.4/22.7
8. Jeremy Nash, NU, .4038/56.2/22.7
9. JaJuan Johnson
10. Kalin Lucas, MSU, ..4296/52.1/22.4
Top 10 freshmen
1. Tyler Griffey, UIUC, .4925/15.2/7.5
2. Derrick Nix, MSU, .4726/15/7.1
3. Maurice Creek, Ind., .4702/48.4/22.7
4. Drew Crawford, NU, .4614/36.7/16.9
5. Alex Marcotullio, NU, .4561/25.4/11.6
6. Rodney Williams, Minn., .4493/25.1/11.3
7. Derek Elston, Ind., .3937/31.6/12.4
8. Brennan Cougill, Iowa, .3628/32.4/11.8
9. Christian Watford, Ind., .3474/43/14.9
10. Kelsey Barlow, Pur., .3447/28/9.6
Overall-
Mean HPPS
.3474
Median HPPS
.3294
Mean HPPG
11.3
Median HPPG
11.3
Tuesday, November 10, 2009
Exhibition compilation for IU players
Starters:
Watford: 8/18, 16/17ft, 8/15rb, 2a/1to, 3s, 41min, 32pts. (+43.5/21.8hppg)
Creek: 6/11 (2/7), 7/8ft, 3/10rb, 3a/5to, 1b, 3s, 40min, 21pts (+44/22hppg)
Pritchard: 6/12, 4/10ft, 6/13rb, 2a/3to, 2b, 4s, 42min, 16pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Jones: 8/16, 9/12ft, 0/4rb, 11a/10to, 2b, 3s, 54min, 25pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Rivers: 12/20, 3/4ft, 0/7rb, 8a/3to, 2b, 2s, 46min, 27pts (+47.5/23.8hppg)
Bench:
Elston: 8/13, 2/2ft, 3/15rb, 1a/3to, 1b, 1s, 33min, 18pts (+31.5/15.8hppg)
Roth: 5/9 (3/6), 1/2rb, 21min, 13pts (+12/6hppg)
Capobianco: 1/6 (0/1), 2/2ft, 3/11rb, 1a/2to, 1s, 22min, 4pts (+13.5/6.8hppg)
Hulls: 6/8 (3/4), 6/6ft, 1/3rb, 4a/5to, 3s, 38min, 21pts (+29/14.5hppg)
Jobe: 0/1, 2/4rb, 1to, 1b, 13min, 0 pts (+5/2.5hppg)
Moore: 1/3 (1/2), 0/2ft, 0/1rb, 2a/1to, 2s, 12min, 3pts (+8/4hhpg)
? (1 game)
Dumes: 0/2 (0/2), 1/2ft, 1/1rb, 2a, 9min, 1pt (+5.5)
Muniru: 2/3, 3/4ft, 1/2rb, 1to, 3b, 8min, 7pts (+13.5)
Walk-ons:
Gambles: 1/3, 1/4ft, 0/1rb, 3min, 3pts (+0.5)
Finkelmeier: 0/2ft, 1s, 5min, 0 pts (0)
Barnett: 0/1, 3min, 0 pts (-1)
Watford: 8/18, 16/17ft, 8/15rb, 2a/1to, 3s, 41min, 32pts. (+43.5/21.8hppg)
Creek: 6/11 (2/7), 7/8ft, 3/10rb, 3a/5to, 1b, 3s, 40min, 21pts (+44/22hppg)
Pritchard: 6/12, 4/10ft, 6/13rb, 2a/3to, 2b, 4s, 42min, 16pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Jones: 8/16, 9/12ft, 0/4rb, 11a/10to, 2b, 3s, 54min, 25pts (+37/18.5hppg)
Rivers: 12/20, 3/4ft, 0/7rb, 8a/3to, 2b, 2s, 46min, 27pts (+47.5/23.8hppg)
Bench:
Elston: 8/13, 2/2ft, 3/15rb, 1a/3to, 1b, 1s, 33min, 18pts (+31.5/15.8hppg)
Roth: 5/9 (3/6), 1/2rb, 21min, 13pts (+12/6hppg)
Capobianco: 1/6 (0/1), 2/2ft, 3/11rb, 1a/2to, 1s, 22min, 4pts (+13.5/6.8hppg)
Hulls: 6/8 (3/4), 6/6ft, 1/3rb, 4a/5to, 3s, 38min, 21pts (+29/14.5hppg)
Jobe: 0/1, 2/4rb, 1to, 1b, 13min, 0 pts (+5/2.5hppg)
Moore: 1/3 (1/2), 0/2ft, 0/1rb, 2a/1to, 2s, 12min, 3pts (+8/4hhpg)
? (1 game)
Dumes: 0/2 (0/2), 1/2ft, 1/1rb, 2a, 9min, 1pt (+5.5)
Muniru: 2/3, 3/4ft, 1/2rb, 1to, 3b, 8min, 7pts (+13.5)
Walk-ons:
Gambles: 1/3, 1/4ft, 0/1rb, 3min, 3pts (+0.5)
Finkelmeier: 0/2ft, 1s, 5min, 0 pts (0)
Barnett: 0/1, 3min, 0 pts (-1)
Wednesday, June 3, 2009
Final Report 2009: Big Ten efficiency ratings
It's time take a look back at the season that was, and how individual players fared statistically in their efficient production during the Big Ten 2009 conference season.
What is this? And for the love of Pete, why?
The full report can be found here:
Top Ten Per-Game Producers
Evan Turner (Ohio State) 25.1
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) 22.3
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) 21.4
Manny Harris (Michigan) 21.3
Talor Battle (Penn State) 20.9
Goran Suton (Michigan State) 20.8
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) 19.8
Mike Davis (Illinois) 19.8
Kevin Coble (Northwestern) 19.7
Chester Frazier (Illinois) 19.1
Top Ten Per-Possession Producers
Mike Capocci (Northwestern) .5051
Paul Carter (Minnesota) .4878
Goran Suton (Michigan State) .4804
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) .4796
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) .4691
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) .4691
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) .4532
Evan Turner (Ohio State) .4361
Manny Harris (Michigan) .4288
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) .4206
The Freshmen 15
1st team:
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) 15.4/.4532
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) 14.0/.4649
Matt Gatens (Iowa) 15.2/.2978
William Buford (Ohio State) 14.9/.2984
Verdell Jones (Indiana) 15.9/.3153
2nd team:
Luka Mirkovic (Northwestern) 12.8/.4115
Draymond Green (Michigan State) 6.2/.4066
Lewis Jackson (Purdue) 12.1/.2971
John Shurna (Northwestern) 7.6/.2995
Laval Lucas-Perry (Michigan) 7.8/.2546
3rd team:
Ralph Sampson (Minnesota) 12.4/.3602
Zack Novak (Michigan) 11.5/.2289
Tom Pritchard (Indiana) 10.8/.2389
Colton Iverson (Minnesota) 8.0/2977
Chris Babb (Penn State) 4.6/.2729
And if you made it this far, just check the previous entry for the school-by-school rundowns.
What is this? And for the love of Pete, why?
The full report can be found here:
Top Ten Per-Game Producers
Evan Turner (Ohio State) 25.1
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) 22.3
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) 21.4
Manny Harris (Michigan) 21.3
Talor Battle (Penn State) 20.9
Goran Suton (Michigan State) 20.8
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) 19.8
Mike Davis (Illinois) 19.8
Kevin Coble (Northwestern) 19.7
Chester Frazier (Illinois) 19.1
Top Ten Per-Possession Producers
Mike Capocci (Northwestern) .5051
Paul Carter (Minnesota) .4878
Goran Suton (Michigan State) .4804
Joe Krabbenhoft (Wisconsin) .4796
JaJuan Johnson (Purdue) .4691
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) .4691
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) .4532
Evan Turner (Ohio State) .4361
Manny Harris (Michigan) .4288
DeShawn Sims (Michigan) .4206
The Freshmen 15
1st team:
BJ Mullens (Ohio State) 15.4/.4532
Delvon Roe (Michigan State) 14.0/.4649
Matt Gatens (Iowa) 15.2/.2978
William Buford (Ohio State) 14.9/.2984
Verdell Jones (Indiana) 15.9/.3153
2nd team:
Luka Mirkovic (Northwestern) 12.8/.4115
Draymond Green (Michigan State) 6.2/.4066
Lewis Jackson (Purdue) 12.1/.2971
John Shurna (Northwestern) 7.6/.2995
Laval Lucas-Perry (Michigan) 7.8/.2546
3rd team:
Ralph Sampson (Minnesota) 12.4/.3602
Zack Novak (Michigan) 11.5/.2289
Tom Pritchard (Indiana) 10.8/.2389
Colton Iverson (Minnesota) 8.0/2977
Chris Babb (Penn State) 4.6/.2729
And if you made it this far, just check the previous entry for the school-by-school rundowns.
2009 individual school-by-school notes:
Illinois
Standout(s): The Illini did pretty good in the individual per-game production, placing 3 in the top 11 (McCamey, Frazier, & Davis), but were less solid on a per-possession basis, with only Mike Davis coming in at #11 overall. The heavy use Weber puts on his players dropped the per-possession stats, but this was a solid group, in terms of efficient production.
Weak link(s): Alex Legion gets this one in a walk. There were minutes available on the wing, and per-possession Legion was highly ineffective (.1524), ranking 109th out of 118. Jeff Jordan wasn't great either (.2385) but you can't hold a walk-on's feet to the fire.
Put me in! Off the bench, it seemed like Calvin Brock (.3462) should've gotten more time at the wing, especially considering how many minutes Weber had his starters playing.
Next Year Notes: Dominique Keller might get more minutes, but of the returnees really it's Mike Tisdale (.3481) that should be playing more. Demetri McCamey had himself a fine year on the wing, but next year might not be as kind to his stats as he'll be both point guard and the go-to guy. As Dee Brown will tell him, that can be tough on you.
Indiana
Standout(s): Exactly two IU players were above-average in this terrible season. Former walk-on Kyle Taber (.3092) and the extremely late pick-up freshman Verdell Jones (.3153) both did well per-possesion, but that was pretty much it. On the whole, this was an extremely inefficient team, and it showed up in the win-loss results.
Weak link(s): Scoring guard: when Dumes wasn't getting hurt or suspended for thowing elbows, he could play efficiently due his stellar three-point shooting. But his inefficiency in pre-conference play suggests that IU fans shouldn't expect a much better version of him to show up next season. Matt Roth's efficiency is probably artificially low (.1804) due to the team's need for him to jack tough threes at the end of games, but really, he did little else besides the occasional but surprising blocked shot. Reserve center Tijan Jobe, despite his height and muscle, was likely the worst player in the conference this season (.0594).
Put me in! Um, nothing really jumps out here. Taber and Jones got as many minutes as they could handle, and noone else really deserved any more than they got. I would've liked to see Nick Williams featured a little more in the offense, but he's gone now, so it's all moot anyway.
Next Year Notes: Crean did what he needed, bring in a top-flight class to start the rebuilding right away. Despite his low conference rating (.2389) Tom Pritchard is actually a pretty decent piece for the future (non-conference he had a .4181 rating), and I think he got victimized (and "fairly" if that's possible) by the refs in the Big Ten for being a physical frosh. Look for his ratings to markedly improve next season. Outside of him and Jones, and maybe Dumes, I don't think we'll see much PT for the other returning players.
Iowa
Standout(s): The wings were the strength of this team, namely Jake Kelly (15.1/.3114) and Matt Gatens (15.2/.2978). Jeff Peterson (16.3/.3182) & David Palmer (9.4/.3151) were above average as well. But once Cyrus Tate (.3555) went down, so did Iowa's NIT hopes.
Weak link(s): The bench. Possible 2010 starters Devan Bawinkel (.1345) and Aaron Fuller (.1697) were awful, as was reserve center Andrew Brommer (.1697).
Put me in! This year's drama has to be the weirdest non-resolution of a coach-player clash I've seen in quite a while. Well, the Calhoun-Robinson thing at UConn last year was pretty wild too. But the curious case of Anthony Tucker had me scratching my head all year. Often effective (13.2/.3622, and oft-used: 36.3 poss.per game) in the pre-season, erratically and rarely used (15 poss./pg in 4 games, 4.3/.2831) in conference play, and now heavily-used again in the off-season, Tucker is nonetheless the best bet for Iowa at the three-spot in 2010.
Next Year Notes: With the unfortunate career-ending injury of Cyrus Tate, and the raft of refugees (Peterson, Kelly, Palmer, Davis) from Lickliter's program, 2009 has been a bad year for Hawkeye fans. Hopefully, Lickliter likes Tucker again next season, because the only other options for a second wing are Devan Bawinkel (perhaps the worst player getting the most minutes in the conference) and the untested and unheralded freshman, Eric May. Jarryd Cole may also struggle moving from the 4-spot to the 5 next season, which will probably affect his average efficiency adversely. And we probably shouldn't talk about the point guard sitch unless we have to. Ouch.
Michigan
Standout(s): Essentially, this was a two-man team. DeShawn Sims (19.8/.4206) and Manny Harris (21.3/.4288) accounted for about 43% of the team's entire production, but more notably, no else was even close in per-game or per-possession terms. Beilien knows how to maximize his best players.
Weak link(s): Actually, outside of the two stars, only reserves Zack Gibson, Kelvin Grady, and CJ Lee were in the average range. But with a plethora of freshmen guards, the lack of per-possession efficiency is not surprising.
Put me in! Zack Gibson again did pretty well with a .3471 rating despite very limited minutes, and CJ Lee could've probably used a few more minutes with his above-average .3131 rating. Last year I thought Gibson was ready for a leap forward, and at times he looked really good this year, but he also just seemed useless at others. Probably he's just an effective reserve.
Next Year Notes: Five starters plus Gibson return, and Beilien adds a fine recruiting class to replace the departed bench. I don't see a lot of PT for the frosh big men, Gibson or the redshirted 7-footer Ben Cronin, as the Michigan offense relies on the bigs being able to shoot from outside reliably and *pass the ball.* Novak, Lucas-Perry, and Douglass should all improve with a year under their belts, so the UM program should continue its recovery.
Michigan State
Standout(s): This was a year for the books for the Spartans. But to me, once again, it was Goran Suton for the Big Ten efficiency POY. Intangibly, you could tell a big difference between MSU with Suton and without him. And he was 6th in the per-game rankings (20.8) while also ranking third in per-possession performance overall (.4804), putting him in a very elite group of players who were elite in both (Turner, J. Johnson, Krabbenhoft, & Sims). But even more impressive is that he was still this elite on the Big 10's deepest and far-and-away best team. Delvon Roe & Draymond Green deserve mentions as promising talent (.4649 & .4066)
Weak link(s): The bench wings were a little weak, and perhaps it is a function of Izzo's offense, but Durrell Summers (.2391) & Chris Allen (.2199) just weren't effective per-possession. They need to find a way to improve over the summer, because they'll be seeing a lot more minutes next year.
Put me in! Izzo's pretty good at maximizing his potential, but I think the one guy who coud've gotten more minutes was Draymond Green. Unfortunately, Roe is even better per-possession, so unless there's a way to put them on the floor at the same time, their minutes aren't going to increase substantially anytime soon.
Next Year Notes: There's just a lot of great young talent here (I haven't even mentioned Kalin Lucas- 17.6/.3333), but the Spartans are going to miss Suton, Walton, and yes, even Marquise Gray & Idong Ibok next season. However, where things should absolutely improve is in the play of Raymar Morgan. Before the conference season began, he was playing at an all Big-Ten level (21.0/.4579). With his health suffering, he was a different player for much of the conference season. Despite the losses, which will hurt, this is title-threat.
Minnesota
Standout(s): Although Damian Johnson led UM in per-game contributions (and is the perhaps the conference exemplar for the need for a system that takes into account more than just offensive stats), the real surprise here is Paul Carter. Despite posting a slightly above-average per-game productivity due to receiving only bench minutes, his .4878 rating was second only to NU's Mike Capocci. In fact, Carter saw about four times the possessions that Capocci did, making him a reasonable candidate for most effective player, but Goran Suton still got nearly twice the possessions as Carter while on a much better team. Still, impressively done, Mr. Carter!
Weak link(s): Lawrence Westbrook's .2741 rating, while average for a shooting guard, still doesn't rate well for the leading scorer. And there's not much help off the bench as Blake Hoffarber seemingly took a big step back from last year's .2821 rating to this year's .1961.
Put me in! Obviously, Carter was the guy who needed more minutes -according to the stats. I didn't watch a lot of Minnesota games, but he always seemed to making contributions when I watched. Devron Bostick seemed like a disappointment during the year, but his per-possession rating (.3427) was actually pretty good.
Next Year Notes: With two good freshmen coming in, minutes start to become a question. One doesn't want Damian Johnson & Paul Carter to lose minutes, and yet you've got to find room for Royce White and Rodney Williams. And yet, with good young talent like Al Nolen and Ralph Sampson III already in place, it's a luxury to have this question. And really, if Westbrook becomes just a bit more efficient (less turnovers, better 2 FG%), Tubby's team should challenge for the conference crown.
Northwestern
Standout(s): Coach Carmody squeezes his good players for all they're worth, so while Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Craig Moore had good ratings, their efficiency probably was a little lower due to the heavy minutes. The surprise here was frosh center Luka Mirkovic, who led the team with his .4115 rating.
Weak link(s): Kyle Rowley is the "winner" here with his weak .2034. Which is tough, because he's a freshman with good size and strength. If he works hard, there's no way he won't be a strong contributor for NU in the coming years.
Put me in! Mike Capocci's league-leading .5051 rating suggests that the man needs some more possessions. If Jeff Ryan might shift back to more a guard role, they both can get more minutes next season (.3159). However, both played very few possessions, and neither were great per-possession last season.
Next Year Notes: This was actually a very deep team, as only the lightly-used Rowley, David Curletti, and Sterling Williams posted beow-average ratings. Craig Moore (17.6/.3276) will be missed, but Jeremy Nash was looking like he was ready to shoulder starting minutes anyway.
Ohio State
Standout(s): Evan Turner was huge in per-game production, at a league-leading 25.1. However, it seemed that Matta knew to maximize the use of a good player, so Turner's
per-possession was more on the level of very good, not great. BJ Mullens led the team in that area at .4532, so his contributions will be sorely missed.
Weak link(s): The bench was pretty weak, particularly if one includes "starter" Dallas Lauderdale, who saw less PT than Mullens in-conference. But even Lauderdale's .2019 rating was better than Walter Offutt's .1961 and Kyle Madsen's .1397. Ouch!
Put me in! Mullens was the only player who really stood out as needing more minutes. Of the starters, Jermaine Simmons could maybe use some more minutes, but even he was only average (.2809). I'd suggest Matta just needed more players.
Next Year Notes: Losing Mullens hurts, as transfers Zizi Sarkopoulos and Nicola Kecman are unlikely to be as effective in the post. But the return of David Lighty could help offset that by shoring up the perimeter defense.
Penn State
Standout(s): Obviously, Talor Battle (20.9/.3739) was the standout here. The main reason that his numbers were even that low was due to his triple role as point guard,
playmaker, and bailout man. I'd also like to highlight Stanley Pringle, who was only above average in per-possession (.3234) but was a workhorse (46.6 possessions/game) for PSU.
Weak link(s): Even though Jamelle Cornley had a below-average .2514 rating and still got crazy usage (54.1 poss./game), the role he played was invaluable for this team. The real weak spot was at the wing, where nominal starter Jeff Brooks had the worst rating in the conference of all starters (.1925), and the more-used Danny Morrissey wasn't much better at .1969. But worst of all was reserve DJ Jackson at .1487!
Put me in! Andrew Ott looked good in his reserve role with a .4019 rating, but again, this system favors low-usage reserve centers for some reason. Chris Babb's .2729 rating was on the low side of average, but that's still pretty good for a freshman guard.
Next Year Notes: Ott & Babb will probably get more possessions, with Babb likely to start. The incoming freshmen class has promise, but it seems a longshot that they'll step in and produce immediately, so short of Brooks and Jackson becoming suddenly effective, the Nittany Lions seem likely to fall back for a year.
Purdue
Standout(s): Robbie Hummel, even despite his injuries that led to a huge drop per-possession (from .5053 to .3626), was still the second-best on the team.
Without JaJuan Johnson's growth into a starring big man (22.3/.4693), Purdue may have had trouble making the NCAA tourney.
Weak link(s): Keaton Grant got heavy minutes and didn't do a lot with them. His .2241 was the worst of any player who got starter's minutes. Maybe itwas just the fact that both he & Moore seem to play better when Hummel is healthy, but one has to wonder whether last season's drastic improvement was an aberration?
Put me in! Marcus Green (.3201) continued to be one of the best 6th men in the conference. Ranking 39th overall as a wing player is no mean feat, and being such a solid option off the bench for two years proved his consistency.
Next Year Notes: Returning their top six players and adding a solid class of freshmen suggests a Big Ten championship awaits these Boilers. Losing a little experienced depth like Green, Calasan, and Riddell off the bench will hurt a little, and the regression of Moore & Grant is a very real concern, but really coach Painter's top worry is the health of Robbie Hummel. Johnson is the top returning center in the conference, but a healthy Hummel is the difference between an okay season and a championship.
Wisconsin
Standout(s): Joe Krabbenhoft (21.4/.4796) was the clear standout on this team, in terms of efficiency. During the year I actually thought that he should become a little less effective by leading and shooting a little more, but that wasn't his game. 3rd overall in per-game production and 4th in per-possession, he was runner-up to Goran Suton for POY in these stats.
Weak link(s): I didn't think too much of Jordan Taylor & Rob Wilson during the year, and they were below-average overall, but for freshmen guards they actually did fine in per-possession terms. But the real weak link was Tim Jarmusz, who came in at 89th. His .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year.
Put me in! Per-possession, Jon Leuer (.3888) and Keaton Nankivil (.3858) were both actually well above-average. Of course, Marcus Landry & Joe Krabbenhoft were even better, so they ate up most of the minutes at the four-spot. Overall, I think Bo Ryan's pretty good at playing his most effective players the most minutes.
Next Year Notes: Jarmusz's .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year. Nankivil & Leuer should do just fine with the extra minutes inside. But the loss of Krabbenhoft & Landry is going to hurt. Unless the redshirts (Evans & Berggren) can really contribute and Mike Bruesewitz is the second coming of Krabbenhoft, I have a hard time seeing the Badgers make the NCAA's next season.
Standout(s): The Illini did pretty good in the individual per-game production, placing 3 in the top 11 (McCamey, Frazier, & Davis), but were less solid on a per-possession basis, with only Mike Davis coming in at #11 overall. The heavy use Weber puts on his players dropped the per-possession stats, but this was a solid group, in terms of efficient production.
Weak link(s): Alex Legion gets this one in a walk. There were minutes available on the wing, and per-possession Legion was highly ineffective (.1524), ranking 109th out of 118. Jeff Jordan wasn't great either (.2385) but you can't hold a walk-on's feet to the fire.
Put me in! Off the bench, it seemed like Calvin Brock (.3462) should've gotten more time at the wing, especially considering how many minutes Weber had his starters playing.
Next Year Notes: Dominique Keller might get more minutes, but of the returnees really it's Mike Tisdale (.3481) that should be playing more. Demetri McCamey had himself a fine year on the wing, but next year might not be as kind to his stats as he'll be both point guard and the go-to guy. As Dee Brown will tell him, that can be tough on you.
Indiana
Standout(s): Exactly two IU players were above-average in this terrible season. Former walk-on Kyle Taber (.3092) and the extremely late pick-up freshman Verdell Jones (.3153) both did well per-possesion, but that was pretty much it. On the whole, this was an extremely inefficient team, and it showed up in the win-loss results.
Weak link(s): Scoring guard: when Dumes wasn't getting hurt or suspended for thowing elbows, he could play efficiently due his stellar three-point shooting. But his inefficiency in pre-conference play suggests that IU fans shouldn't expect a much better version of him to show up next season. Matt Roth's efficiency is probably artificially low (.1804) due to the team's need for him to jack tough threes at the end of games, but really, he did little else besides the occasional but surprising blocked shot. Reserve center Tijan Jobe, despite his height and muscle, was likely the worst player in the conference this season (.0594).
Put me in! Um, nothing really jumps out here. Taber and Jones got as many minutes as they could handle, and noone else really deserved any more than they got. I would've liked to see Nick Williams featured a little more in the offense, but he's gone now, so it's all moot anyway.
Next Year Notes: Crean did what he needed, bring in a top-flight class to start the rebuilding right away. Despite his low conference rating (.2389) Tom Pritchard is actually a pretty decent piece for the future (non-conference he had a .4181 rating), and I think he got victimized (and "fairly" if that's possible) by the refs in the Big Ten for being a physical frosh. Look for his ratings to markedly improve next season. Outside of him and Jones, and maybe Dumes, I don't think we'll see much PT for the other returning players.
Iowa
Standout(s): The wings were the strength of this team, namely Jake Kelly (15.1/.3114) and Matt Gatens (15.2/.2978). Jeff Peterson (16.3/.3182) & David Palmer (9.4/.3151) were above average as well. But once Cyrus Tate (.3555) went down, so did Iowa's NIT hopes.
Weak link(s): The bench. Possible 2010 starters Devan Bawinkel (.1345) and Aaron Fuller (.1697) were awful, as was reserve center Andrew Brommer (.1697).
Put me in! This year's drama has to be the weirdest non-resolution of a coach-player clash I've seen in quite a while. Well, the Calhoun-Robinson thing at UConn last year was pretty wild too. But the curious case of Anthony Tucker had me scratching my head all year. Often effective (13.2/.3622, and oft-used: 36.3 poss.per game) in the pre-season, erratically and rarely used (15 poss./pg in 4 games, 4.3/.2831) in conference play, and now heavily-used again in the off-season, Tucker is nonetheless the best bet for Iowa at the three-spot in 2010.
Next Year Notes: With the unfortunate career-ending injury of Cyrus Tate, and the raft of refugees (Peterson, Kelly, Palmer, Davis) from Lickliter's program, 2009 has been a bad year for Hawkeye fans. Hopefully, Lickliter likes Tucker again next season, because the only other options for a second wing are Devan Bawinkel (perhaps the worst player getting the most minutes in the conference) and the untested and unheralded freshman, Eric May. Jarryd Cole may also struggle moving from the 4-spot to the 5 next season, which will probably affect his average efficiency adversely. And we probably shouldn't talk about the point guard sitch unless we have to. Ouch.
Michigan
Standout(s): Essentially, this was a two-man team. DeShawn Sims (19.8/.4206) and Manny Harris (21.3/.4288) accounted for about 43% of the team's entire production, but more notably, no else was even close in per-game or per-possession terms. Beilien knows how to maximize his best players.
Weak link(s): Actually, outside of the two stars, only reserves Zack Gibson, Kelvin Grady, and CJ Lee were in the average range. But with a plethora of freshmen guards, the lack of per-possession efficiency is not surprising.
Put me in! Zack Gibson again did pretty well with a .3471 rating despite very limited minutes, and CJ Lee could've probably used a few more minutes with his above-average .3131 rating. Last year I thought Gibson was ready for a leap forward, and at times he looked really good this year, but he also just seemed useless at others. Probably he's just an effective reserve.
Next Year Notes: Five starters plus Gibson return, and Beilien adds a fine recruiting class to replace the departed bench. I don't see a lot of PT for the frosh big men, Gibson or the redshirted 7-footer Ben Cronin, as the Michigan offense relies on the bigs being able to shoot from outside reliably and *pass the ball.* Novak, Lucas-Perry, and Douglass should all improve with a year under their belts, so the UM program should continue its recovery.
Michigan State
Standout(s): This was a year for the books for the Spartans. But to me, once again, it was Goran Suton for the Big Ten efficiency POY. Intangibly, you could tell a big difference between MSU with Suton and without him. And he was 6th in the per-game rankings (20.8) while also ranking third in per-possession performance overall (.4804), putting him in a very elite group of players who were elite in both (Turner, J. Johnson, Krabbenhoft, & Sims). But even more impressive is that he was still this elite on the Big 10's deepest and far-and-away best team. Delvon Roe & Draymond Green deserve mentions as promising talent (.4649 & .4066)
Weak link(s): The bench wings were a little weak, and perhaps it is a function of Izzo's offense, but Durrell Summers (.2391) & Chris Allen (.2199) just weren't effective per-possession. They need to find a way to improve over the summer, because they'll be seeing a lot more minutes next year.
Put me in! Izzo's pretty good at maximizing his potential, but I think the one guy who coud've gotten more minutes was Draymond Green. Unfortunately, Roe is even better per-possession, so unless there's a way to put them on the floor at the same time, their minutes aren't going to increase substantially anytime soon.
Next Year Notes: There's just a lot of great young talent here (I haven't even mentioned Kalin Lucas- 17.6/.3333), but the Spartans are going to miss Suton, Walton, and yes, even Marquise Gray & Idong Ibok next season. However, where things should absolutely improve is in the play of Raymar Morgan. Before the conference season began, he was playing at an all Big-Ten level (21.0/.4579). With his health suffering, he was a different player for much of the conference season. Despite the losses, which will hurt, this is title-threat.
Minnesota
Standout(s): Although Damian Johnson led UM in per-game contributions (and is the perhaps the conference exemplar for the need for a system that takes into account more than just offensive stats), the real surprise here is Paul Carter. Despite posting a slightly above-average per-game productivity due to receiving only bench minutes, his .4878 rating was second only to NU's Mike Capocci. In fact, Carter saw about four times the possessions that Capocci did, making him a reasonable candidate for most effective player, but Goran Suton still got nearly twice the possessions as Carter while on a much better team. Still, impressively done, Mr. Carter!
Weak link(s): Lawrence Westbrook's .2741 rating, while average for a shooting guard, still doesn't rate well for the leading scorer. And there's not much help off the bench as Blake Hoffarber seemingly took a big step back from last year's .2821 rating to this year's .1961.
Put me in! Obviously, Carter was the guy who needed more minutes -according to the stats. I didn't watch a lot of Minnesota games, but he always seemed to making contributions when I watched. Devron Bostick seemed like a disappointment during the year, but his per-possession rating (.3427) was actually pretty good.
Next Year Notes: With two good freshmen coming in, minutes start to become a question. One doesn't want Damian Johnson & Paul Carter to lose minutes, and yet you've got to find room for Royce White and Rodney Williams. And yet, with good young talent like Al Nolen and Ralph Sampson III already in place, it's a luxury to have this question. And really, if Westbrook becomes just a bit more efficient (less turnovers, better 2 FG%), Tubby's team should challenge for the conference crown.
Northwestern
Standout(s): Coach Carmody squeezes his good players for all they're worth, so while Kevin Coble, Michael Thompson, and Craig Moore had good ratings, their efficiency probably was a little lower due to the heavy minutes. The surprise here was frosh center Luka Mirkovic, who led the team with his .4115 rating.
Weak link(s): Kyle Rowley is the "winner" here with his weak .2034. Which is tough, because he's a freshman with good size and strength. If he works hard, there's no way he won't be a strong contributor for NU in the coming years.
Put me in! Mike Capocci's league-leading .5051 rating suggests that the man needs some more possessions. If Jeff Ryan might shift back to more a guard role, they both can get more minutes next season (.3159). However, both played very few possessions, and neither were great per-possession last season.
Next Year Notes: This was actually a very deep team, as only the lightly-used Rowley, David Curletti, and Sterling Williams posted beow-average ratings. Craig Moore (17.6/.3276) will be missed, but Jeremy Nash was looking like he was ready to shoulder starting minutes anyway.
Ohio State
Standout(s): Evan Turner was huge in per-game production, at a league-leading 25.1. However, it seemed that Matta knew to maximize the use of a good player, so Turner's
per-possession was more on the level of very good, not great. BJ Mullens led the team in that area at .4532, so his contributions will be sorely missed.
Weak link(s): The bench was pretty weak, particularly if one includes "starter" Dallas Lauderdale, who saw less PT than Mullens in-conference. But even Lauderdale's .2019 rating was better than Walter Offutt's .1961 and Kyle Madsen's .1397. Ouch!
Put me in! Mullens was the only player who really stood out as needing more minutes. Of the starters, Jermaine Simmons could maybe use some more minutes, but even he was only average (.2809). I'd suggest Matta just needed more players.
Next Year Notes: Losing Mullens hurts, as transfers Zizi Sarkopoulos and Nicola Kecman are unlikely to be as effective in the post. But the return of David Lighty could help offset that by shoring up the perimeter defense.
Penn State
Standout(s): Obviously, Talor Battle (20.9/.3739) was the standout here. The main reason that his numbers were even that low was due to his triple role as point guard,
playmaker, and bailout man. I'd also like to highlight Stanley Pringle, who was only above average in per-possession (.3234) but was a workhorse (46.6 possessions/game) for PSU.
Weak link(s): Even though Jamelle Cornley had a below-average .2514 rating and still got crazy usage (54.1 poss./game), the role he played was invaluable for this team. The real weak spot was at the wing, where nominal starter Jeff Brooks had the worst rating in the conference of all starters (.1925), and the more-used Danny Morrissey wasn't much better at .1969. But worst of all was reserve DJ Jackson at .1487!
Put me in! Andrew Ott looked good in his reserve role with a .4019 rating, but again, this system favors low-usage reserve centers for some reason. Chris Babb's .2729 rating was on the low side of average, but that's still pretty good for a freshman guard.
Next Year Notes: Ott & Babb will probably get more possessions, with Babb likely to start. The incoming freshmen class has promise, but it seems a longshot that they'll step in and produce immediately, so short of Brooks and Jackson becoming suddenly effective, the Nittany Lions seem likely to fall back for a year.
Purdue
Standout(s): Robbie Hummel, even despite his injuries that led to a huge drop per-possession (from .5053 to .3626), was still the second-best on the team.
Without JaJuan Johnson's growth into a starring big man (22.3/.4693), Purdue may have had trouble making the NCAA tourney.
Weak link(s): Keaton Grant got heavy minutes and didn't do a lot with them. His .2241 was the worst of any player who got starter's minutes. Maybe itwas just the fact that both he & Moore seem to play better when Hummel is healthy, but one has to wonder whether last season's drastic improvement was an aberration?
Put me in! Marcus Green (.3201) continued to be one of the best 6th men in the conference. Ranking 39th overall as a wing player is no mean feat, and being such a solid option off the bench for two years proved his consistency.
Next Year Notes: Returning their top six players and adding a solid class of freshmen suggests a Big Ten championship awaits these Boilers. Losing a little experienced depth like Green, Calasan, and Riddell off the bench will hurt a little, and the regression of Moore & Grant is a very real concern, but really coach Painter's top worry is the health of Robbie Hummel. Johnson is the top returning center in the conference, but a healthy Hummel is the difference between an okay season and a championship.
Wisconsin
Standout(s): Joe Krabbenhoft (21.4/.4796) was the clear standout on this team, in terms of efficiency. During the year I actually thought that he should become a little less effective by leading and shooting a little more, but that wasn't his game. 3rd overall in per-game production and 4th in per-possession, he was runner-up to Goran Suton for POY in these stats.
Weak link(s): I didn't think too much of Jordan Taylor & Rob Wilson during the year, and they were below-average overall, but for freshmen guards they actually did fine in per-possession terms. But the real weak link was Tim Jarmusz, who came in at 89th. His .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year.
Put me in! Per-possession, Jon Leuer (.3888) and Keaton Nankivil (.3858) were both actually well above-average. Of course, Marcus Landry & Joe Krabbenhoft were even better, so they ate up most of the minutes at the four-spot. Overall, I think Bo Ryan's pretty good at playing his most effective players the most minutes.
Next Year Notes: Jarmusz's .2088 per-possession rating is bad news for Badger fans looking for him to step up into a starting role next year. Nankivil & Leuer should do just fine with the extra minutes inside. But the loss of Krabbenhoft & Landry is going to hurt. Unless the redshirts (Evans & Berggren) can really contribute and Mike Bruesewitz is the second coming of Krabbenhoft, I have a hard time seeing the Badgers make the NCAA's next season.
Monday, January 19, 2009
My Rating System, and why it is the way it is.
Josh from the Excellent Big Ten Geeks blog asked me about my rating system formula, and I thought I'd write up a full explanation.
The non-secret Formula:
Points + Rebounds + Offensive Rebounds + [2 x(Steals+Blocks)] + (2.5 x Assists) - [Missed FGs + (2 x Turnovers) + (Missed FTs/2)]
Divide by game for per-game rating (hpg), and divide by individual possession for per-possession rating (hpps).
Explanation/non-defense thereof:
I started working the formula up back when I was following the NBA in the early '90's, sort of as a way to figure out who might be best in on Fantasy NBA teams. A columnist at USA Today, maybe, proposed some model for comparing players, and I kind of went with it from there. I didn't think of applying it to the college game until a few years ago, when I came across the Big Ten Wonk. He had so many things covered in tempo-free ways, it was inspiring but also intimidating. Effective field goal % and rebounding rates and so much more, as you all well know. However, I like things in a tidier package for comparison's sakes, tho. Kyle Whelliston at Basketball State has a comparable model, but it's pretty much a straight addition of the box score.
Here's the basics: I wanted to reward not only the ability to score points efficiently, but also the other aspects of the game that are so important but not as hyped. And with the Big Ten Wonk's focus on tempo-free comparison, I realized that the possession was the important thing I wanted to factor in. I remember Bob Knight saying about freshmen, that they didn't understand that when they turned it over, that was two points the team lost. And in general, in per-possession stats, that's true: most teams average around 1 point per possession on offense and give up close to the same on defense. But guys like Scottie Pippen, Ekpe Udoh, and Jamarcus Ellis never seemed to get the credit they deserved because their per-game scoring wasn't near other players while their rebounding, passing (well, not Udoh), and ability to get defensive stops went unrecognized. I thought a formula like this might help even it out.
So, obviously points were points, and steals were plus two points, and turnovers were minus two. Offensive rebounds secure a possession where a team shouldn't have one, so that's plus another two points. Blocks are little more difficult, because they aren't always a sure stop, but I figured someone who block shots probably also intimidates or changes shots enough to balance that out: plus two for them as well.
I especially wanted to reward assists. I grew up in Southern Indiana, so passing was always a premium, but it's always irritated me that assists are valued so lightly in other computations (the NBA and Whelliston are examples, but just about every sport puts assists as one point). Especially in basketball, where assists can be on three-point plays or shots, or what should be an assist can so easily turn into a foul on the other team and two more points, to boot. But I figured with a rough count that 30+% of all points come from free-throws and the additional point from three-point makes, so I rounded up to 2.5 points per assist. Really, it should be 2.3 or less, but I was using missed free-throws as minus half-a-point, so for ease, I figured it balanced out. Also, since it's been revealed that the home games result in higher assist counts for the home team, my system could be criticized for putting a premium on the most subjective measure in the box score. But, over 16+ conference games evenly split between home & road, I hope it balances out, too.
I count missed shots as minus one point because offensive rebounds do happen, and some teams used the missed shot as a feature of their offense (Michigan State under Izzo, as well as the Fab Five). And I count rebounds as only one point, as I felt that defensive rebounds are something that basically should happen. Someone else from your team will likely grab that board if you don't. And that's perhaps unfair. But I saw a lot at both the college and professional level of big men grabbing rebounds when noone was near them and snarling or screaming. Besides the aesthetically unpleasantness, I just didn't think that say, DJ White should get as much credit for a rebound on the defensive board -which was often snagged over a teammate (namely Ellis), - as opposed to the rarer and I think harder task of getting a offensive rebound. But, at the end of the season, I may try a tweaked version where I count Def. rebounds as plus two points and missed shots as minus two points. I could also count missed free-throws as minus a full point, also.
The one thing I'd like to do, but sort of flies against the intent of my system, is to reward three-point makes with an extra point due to their value to any offense. It's hard to operate an offense if you don't have shooters to keep the defense from packing it in. But it would require valuing threes as more than just three points in the system, but really as four points each. But it might be necessary in recognizing the value that a guy like Jason Bohannon has to his offense, and especially if I start counting defensive rebounds as two points.
Any (collegial) thoughts or suggestions are, as always, completely welcome.
The non-secret Formula:
Points + Rebounds + Offensive Rebounds + [2 x(Steals+Blocks)] + (2.5 x Assists) - [Missed FGs + (2 x Turnovers) + (Missed FTs/2)]
Divide by game for per-game rating (hpg), and divide by individual possession for per-possession rating (hpps).
Explanation/non-defense thereof:
I started working the formula up back when I was following the NBA in the early '90's, sort of as a way to figure out who might be best in on Fantasy NBA teams. A columnist at USA Today, maybe, proposed some model for comparing players, and I kind of went with it from there. I didn't think of applying it to the college game until a few years ago, when I came across the Big Ten Wonk. He had so many things covered in tempo-free ways, it was inspiring but also intimidating. Effective field goal % and rebounding rates and so much more, as you all well know. However, I like things in a tidier package for comparison's sakes, tho. Kyle Whelliston at Basketball State has a comparable model, but it's pretty much a straight addition of the box score.
Here's the basics: I wanted to reward not only the ability to score points efficiently, but also the other aspects of the game that are so important but not as hyped. And with the Big Ten Wonk's focus on tempo-free comparison, I realized that the possession was the important thing I wanted to factor in. I remember Bob Knight saying about freshmen, that they didn't understand that when they turned it over, that was two points the team lost. And in general, in per-possession stats, that's true: most teams average around 1 point per possession on offense and give up close to the same on defense. But guys like Scottie Pippen, Ekpe Udoh, and Jamarcus Ellis never seemed to get the credit they deserved because their per-game scoring wasn't near other players while their rebounding, passing (well, not Udoh), and ability to get defensive stops went unrecognized. I thought a formula like this might help even it out.
So, obviously points were points, and steals were plus two points, and turnovers were minus two. Offensive rebounds secure a possession where a team shouldn't have one, so that's plus another two points. Blocks are little more difficult, because they aren't always a sure stop, but I figured someone who block shots probably also intimidates or changes shots enough to balance that out: plus two for them as well.
I especially wanted to reward assists. I grew up in Southern Indiana, so passing was always a premium, but it's always irritated me that assists are valued so lightly in other computations (the NBA and Whelliston are examples, but just about every sport puts assists as one point). Especially in basketball, where assists can be on three-point plays or shots, or what should be an assist can so easily turn into a foul on the other team and two more points, to boot. But I figured with a rough count that 30+% of all points come from free-throws and the additional point from three-point makes, so I rounded up to 2.5 points per assist. Really, it should be 2.3 or less, but I was using missed free-throws as minus half-a-point, so for ease, I figured it balanced out. Also, since it's been revealed that the home games result in higher assist counts for the home team, my system could be criticized for putting a premium on the most subjective measure in the box score. But, over 16+ conference games evenly split between home & road, I hope it balances out, too.
I count missed shots as minus one point because offensive rebounds do happen, and some teams used the missed shot as a feature of their offense (Michigan State under Izzo, as well as the Fab Five). And I count rebounds as only one point, as I felt that defensive rebounds are something that basically should happen. Someone else from your team will likely grab that board if you don't. And that's perhaps unfair. But I saw a lot at both the college and professional level of big men grabbing rebounds when noone was near them and snarling or screaming. Besides the aesthetically unpleasantness, I just didn't think that say, DJ White should get as much credit for a rebound on the defensive board -which was often snagged over a teammate (namely Ellis), - as opposed to the rarer and I think harder task of getting a offensive rebound. But, at the end of the season, I may try a tweaked version where I count Def. rebounds as plus two points and missed shots as minus two points. I could also count missed free-throws as minus a full point, also.
The one thing I'd like to do, but sort of flies against the intent of my system, is to reward three-point makes with an extra point due to their value to any offense. It's hard to operate an offense if you don't have shooters to keep the defense from packing it in. But it would require valuing threes as more than just three points in the system, but really as four points each. But it might be necessary in recognizing the value that a guy like Jason Bohannon has to his offense, and especially if I start counting defensive rebounds as two points.
Any (collegial) thoughts or suggestions are, as always, completely welcome.
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